The reduction of the key rate cannot be automatic, it requires certain prerequisites. The Central Bank will focus on the dynamics of inflation, inflation expectations and the balance of risks. The trajectory of the key rate will be such as to ensure a reduction in inflation to 4% in 2027 and its consolidation at the target level in the future. This follows from the statement of Elvira Nabiullina, according to the Central Bank.
The situation in the Middle East continues to influence global market conditions.
The dynamics of physical volumes of Russian exports are constrained by geopolitical factors and the temporary withdrawal of part of the logistics capacity. At the same time, the demand for imports is growing, including to replace the supply of petroleum products and replenish reduced reserves. The combination of these factors led to a slight weakening of the ruble in the summer months.
The Central Bank continues to assess the pro-inflationary risks as prevailing and believes that they have increased. The economy may return to a situation of imbalance between supply and demand after they came into line in the first half of this year.
Pro-inflationary risks are also associated with labor market tensions and external conditions.
The disinflationary risk remains a more significant cooling of domestic demand than is envisaged in our baseline scenario.
Price growth has accelerated markedly in recent months. This was due to one-time factors that monetary policy cannot influence. But it can and should respond to their secondary effects and prevent a one-time acceleration of inflation from developing into a stable trend. For this, it is necessary to maintain moderately tight monetary conditions, E.Nabiullina noted.
Recall, the Central Bank kept the key rate at 14% per annum.
