In April-May, there was a downward price trend in the oil market. Since mid-April, Brent crude oil quotes have dropped from levels above $88 to the area of $73-76, where they are currently. The banking crisis and the tense situation around the government debt ceiling in the United States continue to have a negative impact on oil quotes, which show a moderate decline.
This is stated in issue No. 1523 of the monthly bulletin "Branches of the Russian economy: production, finance, securities. Oil and gas production and oil refining" dated May 17, 2023.Among the longer-term factors exerting pressure on the market, we can note the risks of a slowdown in the US economy and weak data on Chinese industry. However, if the price of Brent remains below $80 per barrel for a long time, OPEC+ may again cut production.
The Government of the Russian Federation has ordered to suspend the publication of statistics on oil, gas and condensate production until April 1, 2024. Disclosure of monthly data has been prohibited since March 2023, quarterly reporting — since the first quarter. Therefore, Rosstat did not provide data on the volume of oil production in Russia by the end of March. But according to OPEC estimates, Russia in March produced 11.1 million barrels per day of liquid hydrocarbons (9.7 million b/d of oil and 1.4 million b/d of condensate), which is 282 thousand barrels per day less than in February.
In the first quarter of 2023, natural gas production in Russia amounted to 149 billion cubic meters, having decreased by 14.1% compared to the same period in 2022. In March of this year, 49.8 billion cubic meters of gas were produced in Russia (-15.3% YoY). Associated petroleum gas production in Russia for three months decreased by 1.3% to 26.4 billion. cubic meters. In March, the indicator decreased by 0.2% in annual terms, and increased by 8% on a monthly basis. Rosstat provided such data. In turn, the Kommersant newspaper reported that by the end of the first quarter of 2023, the production of natural and associated gas in Russia has decreased to 180 billion. cubic meters, or 10% compared to the same indicator in 2022.
Russian oil exports in April increased by 250 thousand barrels per day, to 5.2 million barrels per day, which is the highest since May 2022. This is the opinion of the International Energy Agency, according to which the estimated revenues from oil exports of the Russian Federation increased by $ 1.7 billion to $ 15 billion compared to the previous month, but turned out to be 27% lower than a year ago. The two largest consumers in Asia, China and India, increased the purchase of Russian raw materials to 2.1 and 2 million barrels per day, respectively. 400 thousand barrels per day were supplied to the EU, mainly to Hungary and Slovakia by pipe and to Bulgaria by sea.
The countries of the European Union may soon ban the import of liquefied natural gas from Russia. This statement was made by the Minister of Energy of Spain Teresa Ribera in an interview with Reuters. In March, the Minister sent a letter to major LNG importers in Spain asking them not to sign new contracts for the purchase of LNG from Russia. According to her, all the companies she contacted promised not to enter into new contracts.
For a more detailed analysis, read issue No. 1523 of the monthly bulletin "Branches of the Russian economy: production, finance, securities. Oil and gas production and oil refining" dated May 17, 2023.