In 2025, the Bank of Russia expects the banking sector to move from surplus to liquidity deficit and its gradual growth. This is stated in the Central Bank's commentary on the medium-term macroeconomic forecast.
Mirroring by the Bank of Russia in the domestic foreign exchange market of regular operations for the purchase and sale of foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule and operations in connection with the placement of NWF funds in authorized financial assets within the Russian economy will weaken the impact of budget operations on the liquidity of the banking sector, the regulator's materials emphasize.
At the same time, delayed mirroring of transactions in excess of the budget rule carried out in 2024 will lead to an outflow of funds from banks.
An increase in the volume of cash in circulation and an increase in mandatory reserves in accordance with the general expansion of the money supply will also contribute to an increase in the liquidity deficit in 2025.
