The external background on Thursday morning can be called moderately positive. Oil prices stabilized after falling the day before, and sentiment on global stock markets improved after another day of sales.
Trading on the US stock exchanges on the eve ended with a 0.1-1.1% drop in the three main indices, led by the high-tech Nasdaq, which reached its lowest since the second half of February on fears of a prolonged continuation of tight monetary policy in the country. The S&P 500 indicator, meanwhile, fell below the support of 5,035 points and stopped the decline slightly above the psychologically important level of 5,000 points, overcoming which can accelerate medium-term sales, among other things.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.4% in the morning as part of a correction. On Thursday, participants will evaluate data from the labor market, housing and the manufacturing sector of the country, as well as speeches by representatives of the Fed.
Trading in Europe ended with a decline in the index the day before The Euro Stoxx 50 fell by less than 0.1%, which lost all positions won during the day after the deterioration of sentiment in the United States. The region is also waiting for signals from representatives of central banks about the possible trajectory of interest rates. These days, interesting statements are coming from the EU and Eurogroup summit.
Positive corrective dynamics prevails in trading in Asia in the morning. Sentiment in the high-tech sector is supported, in particular, by the quarterly results of Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer TSMC, which exceeded expectations, which were achieved thanks to demand for AI chips. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.1%. The Australian ASX 200 gained about 0.5%. China's indices are growing by about 0.5%, and Hong Kong's The Hang Seng is rising 0.9%, retreating from the lows since the beginning of March.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil are adding within 0.5% in the morning after falling by about 3% the day before. Quotes on Wednesday fell below the short-term supports of $88.90 and $84, respectively (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts), which indicates the risks of developing a downward correction in the area of $84 and $80, respectively (the lower Bollinger bands). Profit-taking is taking place on the market against the background of stable oil supplies in the Middle East, although Israel, judging by the statements of the authorities, intends to respond to the recent Iranian attack. At the same time, the report of the US Department of Energy showed an increase in oil reserves in the country last week by 2.73 million barrels (+1.6 million barrels were expected).
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices fell by 0.25% and 0.1%, respectively, the day before. The ruble indicator ended the day at the support of 3455 points, stabilization below which may open the way to correction in the area of 3390 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart). The dollar RTS is moving towards 1145 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart), experiencing additional pressure from the ruble.
In the morning, the ruble on the Moscow Exchange weakens within 0.5% against the dollar, euro and Chinese yuan, settling at 94.30 rubles, 100.80 rubles and 13 rubles, respectively. The ruble remains close to annual lows against the dollar (94.53 rubles), the euro (101.69 rubles) and the yuan (13.02 rubles).
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market may try to grow following the improvement in sentiment abroad. A negative factor for the oil sector, however, will be the development of a downward correction in black gold, which may not be completed yet. Aluminum and nickel prices remain inclined to rise after the introduction of new sanctions by the United States and the United Kingdom, which may help the recovery of shares of their producers. In the construction sector, LSR shareholders approved dividends for 2023 the day before, which will bring investors a yield of about 9% with the closure of the register on May 2. On Thursday, the dividends for 2023 will be discussed by the Board of Directors of TMK and TGK-14, and MMK is expected to deliver operational results for the first quarter of 2024. At the same time, we do not exclude that MMK, following Severstal and NLMK, recommends final dividends for last year.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital, https://veles-capital.ru/analytics /
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