The external background on Friday morning can be called moderately positive. Oil prices moved towards new annual highs the day before, and the mood on global stock markets is mostly optimistic. Gold prices ended the week reaching another historic peak of $2,256 per ounce.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday without a single dynamics of the three main indices, which changed within 0.2%, retreating from intraday highs. The S&P 500, in particular, updated its historical peak (5,264 points), and the high-tech Nasdaq declined slightly, showing caution before a long weekend and the release of important inflation data. At the same time, Thursday's statistics showed US GDP growth for the fourth quarter by 3.4% q/q (+3.2% q/q was expected), which is lower than the expansion of the previous quarter by 4.9% q/q, but still far from recession.
Futures trading on the S&P 500 index is not held in the morning due to Good Friday. During the day, however, investors are waiting for the speech of Fed Chairman Powell, as well as the publication of the Fed's preferred inflation indicator: the basic price index of consumption for February, the growth rate of which probably remained at 2.8% yoy. In general, inflation in the United States still requires keeping interest rates at a high level.
Trading in Europe ended yesterday with almost no changes in the Euro Stoxx 50 index. On Friday, many exchanges in the region are closed for the weekend, but participants will be able to assess French consumer inflation data for March (a slowdown is expected). Next week, preliminary inflation estimates for Germany and the eurozone will be released.
The trading in Asia in the morning is dominated by positive dynamics. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.5% following a decline the day before. Friday's statistics showed a slowdown in core consumer inflation in Tokyo in March from 2.5% to 2.4% YoY, as expected. The Australian and Hong Kong exchanges are closed for the weekend. Chinese indices are rising within 1%. Next week, business activity indices for March will be published in China, which may show a slowdown in the country's manufacturing sector.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI oil rose by 1-2% the day before, while prices for the American variety updated another maximum since November 2023 ($83.17). Brent quotes are close to the annual peak of $87.66. The oil market enters the second quarter on a bullish note, expecting limited supply to remain in conditions of stable demand. Next week, an OPEC+ meeting will be held, changes in production quotas at which, however, are not expected.
The indices of the Moscow Stock Exchange and RTS did not show a single dynamics on the eve. The ruble indicator added 0.25%, while the dollar indicator lost about 0.1%. However, the market held the support of 3,290 points and 1,120 points and aimed for the next resistances of 3,320 and 1,135 points, including through purchases in dividend names.
The ruble is strengthening in the morning on the Moscow Exchange within 0.5% against the dollar, euro and Chinese yuan, located at 92.30 rubles, 99.60 rubles and 12.70 rubles, respectively. Today, the Russian currency still continues to receive support for the tax period, which it will lose in early April.
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market may develop growth, receiving support, including from commodity companies after the increase in oil and gold prices, as well as in anticipation of the payment of dividends by many of them by the end of 2023. A new Europlan issuer is also entering the Moscow Stock Exchange today. Activity on Friday as a whole may be reduced due to the weekend in the United States and on commodity markets. Nevertheless, the day will bring important signals to the markets, which will be played back next week in the form of the Fed's preferred inflation indicator and a speech by the head of the regulator Powell.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital, https://veles-capital.ru/analytics /
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