In 2023, the population purchased 3.8 million residential units worth 18 trillion rubles. This was stated at the XXII All-Russian conference "Mortgage lending in Russia" by the head of the analytical center DOM.Russian Federation Mikhail Goldberg.
Almost half of all funds (8.1 out of 18 trillion rubles) were allocated by the population for the purchase of housing under construction.
Mortgages provided more than 65% of the increase in all loans to the population in 2023. The share of mortgages in the loan portfolio of individuals has reached 54%.
Mortgage issuance exceeded the result of last year by ~ 1.5 times, and the share of preferential programs reached a maximum.
In 2023, the growth of housing sales in new buildings was mainly provided by preferential programs (83% of all housing units).
According to him, Russians use preferential mortgage programs not only to buy housing in their region of residence. Metropolitan, economic and resort centers are the main points of attraction for residents of other regions.
The northern and southern regions, as well as the Far East, are among the leaders in terms of the proportion of residents choosing other regions. At the same time, borrowers from St. Petersburg and Leningrad Region (6%), Moscow and Moscow Region (9%), Sverdlovsk Region (10%), Tatarstan (11%), Novosibirsk Region (11%) are the least likely to buy housing on the primary market in other regions.
At the federal district level, residents of the North Caucasus and the Far East are the most "mobile".
At the beginning of 2024, many large banks began to issue mortgages with state support only on condition of additional subsidization by developers of such loans. The introduction of these measures is due to a decrease in the profitability of banks due to: a reduction in the amount of subsidies for concessional loans by a total of 1 percentage point (-0.5 percentage points from September 20 and another -0.5 percentage points from December 23); an increase in macro allowances by the Bank of Russia on mortgage loans, which limits risks in the mortgage market and increases the burden on capital banks.
Since January, demand began to flow to banks that did not introduce commissions on preferential loans. In March, VTB abolished commissions and significantly increased its market share, overtaking Sberbank.
In 2024, the mortgage market will operate in conditions of high rates, stricter regulation and the transition to targeted preferential programs.
The demand for state-backed mortgages has increased in all programs except for the "Preferential Mortgage" due to the tightening of its conditions since December 23. The "Family mortgage" remains the most in demand (more than 50% of all preferential programs).
Mortgages for the construction of individual homes (IHS) are the fastest growing segment of the market. Mortgage issuance for residential housing has increased almost 3 times in 2 months of 2024. Almost all loans for housing and communal services are issued under preferential programs.
In projects with planned commissioning in 2024, more than half of the space has already been sold, and in 2025 ‒ more than a quarter. The ratio of sales and availability in the portfolio as a whole (81%) is significantly higher than last year's level (71%).
In 2024, the mortgage market is expected to decline in conditions of high market rates and the completion of the "Preferential Mortgage". In 2024, mortgage issuance will decrease (even taking into account the extension of the "Family Mortgage" after July 1, 2024), and then it will gradually begin to recover as market rates decrease.
The XXII All-Russian Conference "Mortgage Lending in Russia" is taking place in Moscow on March 29, 2024. The organizer is the AK&M agency. The conference partners are the A101 Group of Companies and the VSK Insurance House.
Leading experts discuss the most likely scenarios, offer tools and development paths that will help maintain stability in the market.
