The Moscow Stock Exchange index rose by a third of a percent yesterday, thereby suspending the decline after two days of sales. But the trading turnover was small, so we are not sure that the stock market has returned to the growth phase. In part, yesterday's rise was a consequence of the closure of the shorts.
Tomorrow is a working Saturday, but it is unlikely that trading will be pleased with high liquidity, as well as on Monday-Tuesday. Many investors will prefer to fully spend the holidays without including the trading terminal, so it is risky to open new positions.
The main event of today will be the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on the key rate. We are confident that the rate will remain unchanged, and the regulator will indicate the potential for a rate cut in the future. If there is no specifics about this "future", then the Central Bank's decision will not have an impact on the markets.
Today we are also waiting for reports from BEAC, Yandex, Aeroplane and Positiva. It is worth paying more attention to the last paper. Since December last year, it has been in a steady uptrend, all drawdowns are quickly redeemed. It is quite possible that if the Moscow Stock Exchange Index goes into correction after the end of the dividend season, then high-tech stocks, especially the "second echelon", will not follow the general market trend.
The external background is positive today – oil is growing by half a percent and approaching $90, most industrial and precious metals are traded in the "green" zone. Including gold, it is rising in price by a third of a percent, trading at about $2,350 per ounce.
The dollar-ruble pair ran into a not very strong support of 92. Today, volatility in the foreign exchange market may increase at the rate decision and during the press conference of the head of the Central Bank. However, there is no doubt that in the near future the regulator will not significantly reduce the rate, thereby maintaining the support of the ruble. On the other hand, the end of the tax period will reduce the demand for the ruble in the foreign exchange market, and the liquidity of trading in the next three sessions will be low. Therefore, we do not exclude a slight decrease in the Russian currency.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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