The external background on Thursday morning can be called ambiguous. Oil prices are rising slightly after a decline the day before, and sentiment on global stock markets is mixed before the release of preliminary data on US GDP for the first quarter. Investors in Russia and abroad also evaluate numerous quarterly reports.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday without a single dynamics of the three main indices, which changed within 0.2% after fluctuations between plus and minus during the session. The S&P 500 indicator has suspended the increase at the resistance of 5,090 points and still has the potential to develop corrective growth in the area of 5,140 points. The market as a whole was waiting for new macroeconomic and corporate signals, and statistics showed an acceleration in the growth of orders for durable goods in the United States in March from 0.7% to 2.6% mom.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.7% in the morning. Participants were disappointed with the quarterly revenue forecasts of Meta Platforms, whose shares lose 15% after the closing of the main trading, while IBM securities fall by 8% after reporting. The upward correction in the IT sector in recent days, therefore, may stop. As the day progresses, the US is also waiting for a preliminary estimate of the country's GDP for the first quarter, which is likely to indicate a slowdown in growth from 3.4% to 2.5% yoy. The world's largest economy as a whole, despite high interest rates, remains stable.
Trading in Europe ended yesterday with a decrease in the Euro Stoxx 50 index by 0.4%. On Thursday morning, statistics showed an increase in the GfK German consumer climate index for May from -27.3 to -24.2 points (-25.9 points were predicted). In the region, however, subdued sales may continue amid deteriorating sentiment in the United States.
There is no pronounced dynamics in trading in Asia in the morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained less than 0.1% ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of Japan and possible interventions aimed at halting the weakening of the yen. The Australian ASX 200 has hardly changed positions. China's indices are rising within 0.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is adding 0.3%, having updated the maximum since November 2023 and trying to gain a foothold above the resistance of 17,215 points. Hong Kong stock exchanges seem to be forming a new medium-term uptrend.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil are adding less than 0.5% in the morning after rising within 0.5% the day before. Quotes are experiencing uncertainty at the resistances of $88.90 and $84 dollars, respectively (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts), waiting for signals, including from geopolitics. A report by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday showed a reduction in oil reserves last week by 6.36 million barrels (expected +1.6 million barrels), which provided restrained support to prices.
The indices of the Moscow Stock Exchange and RTS changed in different directions the day before. The ruble indicator decreased by 0.3%, holding above the short-term support of 3,415 points, stabilization below which may open up prospects for movement to 3,340 points. The dollar RTS increased by 0.65%, refraining from updating annual peaks in the resistance area of 1180 points and reacting to the dynamics of the foreign exchange market.
In the morning, the ruble on the Moscow Exchange weakens within 0.5% against the dollar, euro and Chinese yuan, settling at 92.30 rubles, 99 rubles and 12.68 rubles, respectively. Before tomorrow's meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Russian currency is below the important short-term values of 92.90 rubles. 99 rubles. and 12.80 rubles. with the prospect of a possible acceleration of its growth when overcoming the levels of 91.75 rubles., 98.50 rubles. and 12.60 rubles. (lower Bollinger bands of the daily charts).
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market may try to return to growth in the ruble segment and adjust in the dollar, generally remaining in a fairly narrow range of values. The quarterly reporting season is in full swing in the Russian Federation, and before the opening of the main trades, Ozone reported a 32% increase in revenue in the first quarter of this year with a net loss of 13.2 billion rubles (against a profit of 10.7 billion rubles a year earlier), as well as an 88% jump in turnover of goods and services: the company continues to actively develop. During the session, participants will wait, among other things, for MMK's financial results and a possible announcement of annual dividends: this season, the dividend yield of the steel sector after a pause in payments reaches 10-11%, the upper limit for the market. MTS-Bank shares, the order book for which has been repeatedly oversubscribed, will also be allowed to trade on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Thursday.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital, https://veles-capital.ru/analytics /
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