The external background on Friday morning can be called moderately positive. Oil prices continue to rise the day before, and sentiment on global stock markets improved after the optimistic quarterly results from Microsoft and Alphabet. The Russian Federation is waiting for the results of the next meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Trading on the US stock exchanges on the eve ended with a decrease in the three main indices by 0.5-1%, this time led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. At the same time, the S&P 500 indicator managed to stay above the psychologically important 5,000 point mark. Sales were driven by disappointing forecasts and quarterly results from Meta Platforms and IBM. At the same time, a preliminary estimate showed a slowdown in US GDP growth in the first quarter from 3.4% to 1.6% yoy (expected +2.5% yoy), which raises doubts about the so-called "soft landing" of the world's largest economy.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.9% in the morning. Alphabet shares jumped 11.5% after the close of major trading on the back of strong reporting, the launch of a buyback of securities, as well as the announcement of the first dividends in the company's history. Microsoft securities are adding about 4% after quarterly results. As the day progresses, the US is waiting for the release of, among other things, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator for March: the basic price index of consumption. The market hopes for a slowdown in inflation from 2.8% to 2.6% yoy.
Trading in Europe ended with a decline in the index the day before Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 1% following sales in the USA. At the end of the week, however, the markets of the region are ready for the development of corrective growth after encouraging reports from American IT giants.
The trading in Asia in the morning is dominated by positive dynamics. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.85% after the neutral results of the Bank of Japan meeting, which did not comment on the recent weakness of the yen, thereby provoking new local lows of the national currency. The Australian ASX 200 lost 1.4%, being under pressure from corporate news. China's indices are rising within 2%. Hong Kong The Hang Seng is adding 2.5%, rising to another high since November 2023 and breaking through the medium-term bearish trend line thanks to optimism in the IT sector.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil are adding about 0.5% in the morning after rising by about 1.5% the day before. Prices have been retreating from intraday lows for several consecutive sessions and returning to the resistance area of $88.90 and $84, respectively (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts), which, however, have not yet been resolved due to the lack of significant fundamental drivers.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices rose 0.3% and 0.65%, respectively, the day before. The ruble indicator is holding above the short-term support of 3,415 points, but has not yet decided to resume strong growth due to multidirectional corporate factors. The dollar RTS has updated another maximum since 2022, rising to 1,179 points due to currency dynamics and, in general, continues to look at the area of 1,200 points.
In the morning, the ruble on the Moscow Exchange is correctively weakening within 0.5% against the dollar, euro and Chinese yuan, located at 91.90 rubles, 98.70 rubles and 12.67 rubles, respectively. The Russian currency remains at significant technical levels of 91.75 rubles, 98.50 rubles and 12.60 rubles (lower Bollinger bands of the daily charts), stabilization below which may open up new growth horizons for it. On Friday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is expected to maintain the interest rate at 16%, as well as a moderately tough signal for the coming months, which is positive for the ruble.
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market may not show significant changes, and during the day it will continue to evaluate numerous quarterly results and dividend news of companies. In particular, Sberbank, Yandex and Fix Price will present financial statements for the first quarter of 2024. MTS-Bank shares will start trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The new issuer of the Moscow Stock Exchange, Zaymer, recommended dividends for the first quarter of this year in the amount of 4.58 rubles per share with a yield of about 2%. Sentiment abroad has improved due to reports in the IT sector and remains volatile overall.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital, https://veles-capital.ru/analytics /
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