Thursday on the Russian stock market began with moderate sales, the Moscow Stock Exchange Index fell by half a percent at its maximum, but after lunch, buyers returned to the market and bought out the entire drawdown of the first half of the day. According to the results of the main trades, the Moscow Stock Exchange index remained virtually unchanged.
The result can be called very strong, given that oil sank to $86 per barrel. Yesterday once again underlines that opening shorts is very dangerous now, the time has not yet come for them.
In general, it seems that the Moscow Stock Exchange Index will remove technical overbought sideways movement, after which a moderate rise will resume. The main driver of the upward movement will be the purchase of shares for dividends.
It was the dividends that yesterday pulled Surgutneftegaz shares (both the usual and the prefs) into the top ten. On Monday, the company's Board of Directors is due to make a recommendation on the amount of payments. According to the prefs, we expect a dividend yield of around 18%. Weaker dividends will cause a sharp decline in the stock prices.
If the purchase of Surgut prefs is understandable and justified, then the increase in its revenue by 2% is surprising. However, this paper can grow and fall strongly without any reason.
Gazpromneft went to the South Pole, which fell in price by 1.1%. Since the beginning of the year, the paper has been trading worse than the market, which, in our opinion, is unjustified.
Today, sharply increased oil will help her and other oil companies. In the morning, the quotes of "black gold" are adding about 2%, getting closer to $ 89. Bearing in mind the events of last weekend, when Iran struck Israel, it is unlikely that a significant part of investors will risk leaving for the weekend in oil shorts, especially since yesterday it more than fulfilled the reduction target.
The nearest resistance for oil lies around $92. Drawdowns will be redeemed until the degree of geopolitical tension significantly decreases.
In general, we do not expect fundamental changes in the Moscow Stock Exchange Index. If nothing sharply negative happens over the weekend, then the market will open the new week with growth attempts.
After the breakdown of the strong resistance of 93.5 against the ruble, the dollar could not develop success, and began a slow retreat. Everything suggests that the dollar-ruble pair will try to go into the usual 87.5-93 sideways movement for the last 6 months.3. But attempts to storm the upper limit of this range will continue. We do not see any reasons for a serious strengthening of the ruble.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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