Most of the "blue chips" sat down yesterday, but the Moscow Stock Exchange Index closed almost unchanged due to the growth of stocks in the evening trading on Monday and the strength of the Sber. The market has already played down expectations of increased dividends from state-owned companies and the visit of the Chinese leader to Moscow, and has not found new drivers of recovery.
The talks between the heads of Russia and China were fruitful, but we are unlikely to ever know all the agreements. Of the important points, it is worth noting the decision to supply China with 98 billion cubic meters of gas and another 100 million tons of LNG by 2030.
This news is positive in the medium term, first of all, for Gazprom and NOVATEK. But it will be a very long time before there will be a significant increase in supplies, and the market is now still living with closer prospects.
Of the "blue chips", VTB and Gazprom were expected to suffer the greatest losses yesterday. We do not think that they can demonstrate medium-term growth ahead of the market.
The Beac looked much better than the market, which stayed in the "green" zone all day and only at evening trading decreased by 0.2% relative to Tuesday's closing level. The paper will continue to be supported by a 13% dividend yield and the expectation of strong results for the current year. We are still waiting for its growth in the region of 240 rubles.
There are problems with gold. His quotes began to test the important zone of $1930-$1940 per troy ounce from top to bottom. Its breakdown will provoke an increase in metal sales and, accordingly, a continuation of the decline in the shares of Polyus and Polymetal.
A lot for gold will depend on today's verdict of the US Federal Reserve on the rate and the subsequent comments of the regulator. The basic scenario is a rate increase of 0.25 percentage points and statements by the head of the Federal Reserve that the situation with American banks is under control. But still, uncertainty about the outcome of today's Fed meeting is high, and until the issue is resolved, Western platforms are likely to be held sideways.
In the morning, oil is down 0.6%. It has not yet been able to gain a foothold above $75 per barrel, and is trading just below this mark. On the other hand, and this is not bad, since at the beginning of the week there were strong technical risks of a drop in quotations in the area of $ 68. The improvement of the situation on the oil market today should support the shares of oil companies.
In general, there are no reasons for the continued growth and departure of the Moscow Exchange Index above 2400 points yet. If they do not appear, the market will continue to slide down under its own weight.
The ruble rose 0.66% against the dollar yesterday after 5 sessions of continuous decline. For now, this should be considered as a technical rebound. It will be possible to talk about a more serious strengthening of the ruble only if the dollar-ruble pair confidently passes down the 76.5 mark, near which it finished trading yesterday.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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