Important events of the day
The Eurozone: statements by ECB representatives.
In the spotlight
The global market showed an upward trend last week. There was high volatility in a number of assets due to geopolitical events. At the same time, on Friday, December labor statistics showed not only a decrease in the unemployment rate in the United States to September levels, but also an unexpectedly strong increase in Americans' wages (see detailed commentary). The Russian market fell in the first few trades of the year amid the latest geopolitical news. During the non-working week, no significant macro data was released in the Russian Federation.
The global market will be waiting for the publication of December price statistics in the United States this week. In addition, investors will continue to play off further news around Venezuela, Iran and Greenland, as well as reports of increased pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In Russia, the first working week of the year will also be marked by the release of inflation data. On Friday, Rosstat will release consumer price figures for December, and on Wednesday, weekly inflation will be released. There will be increased interest in the "weeks" now, as they will reflect the effect of the VAT increase.
Oil and the ruble
There was high volatility in the oil market, but Brent was able to grow significantly at the end of the week. Investors have focused on the risks of supply disruptions from Iran, and fears of supply growth from Venezuela have eased at the moment – the market expects this to take a long time. Today, Brent futures are trading at $63.3/bbl. In general, a high degree of volatility may remain in the commodity market for the time being, with quotes at risk of returning closer to $62/bbl.
The Russian currency started the first trading of the new year with a weakening, but now the ruble has returned to the levels of the end of 2025. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 11.27 rubles/yuan. Other EM currencies are mostly strengthening against the US dollar in the morning. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance is to announce the parameters of currency sales under the budget rule, which risk significantly increasing. However, by themselves, these operations are neutral for the course. More important is the reduction of irregular sales of the Central Bank's currency from 8.94 to 4.62 billion rubles /day – this forms the foundation for the weakening of the Russian currency during the first half of the year.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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