The ruble could not take advantage of support from exporters

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Bogdan Zvarich, <url> 25 May 2023 11:50

The mood on the world markets on Thursday morning can be described as negative. In Asia, the leading sites lose within 0.9%. The exception is the Japanese market, which is pulling up by 0.4%. Futures on the main US indices, after a decline on Wednesday, are showing multidirectional dynamics this morning. The nearest futures for Brent crude oil is being adjusted, declining by 0.3% and trading just above $78 per barrel. Among the macroeconomic events that can influence investor sentiment today, we will highlight the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits and the index of pending sales in the US housing market.

Following the results of Wednesday, the Moscow Stock Exchange index rose by 0.5%, ending the session around 2655 points. It should be noted that the Russian market managed to reach the highs of April despite the continuing pressure on Gazprom shares. At the same time, Sberbank shares are the main engine of the market. Today, at the start of trading, we expect positive trends in Russian stocks to continue, which will allow the Moscow Stock Exchange index to continue its upward trend. Despite the deterioration of sentiment on external platforms, Russian securities will be supported by an improvement in the situation on the energy market, where the nearest Brent crude futures were able to reach the middle of the range of $75 – $80 per barrel. At the same time, the medium–term goal of the current growth scenario may be the range of 2800 - 3000 points according to the Moscow Stock Exchange index. Note that the risks of cancellation of this scenario will increase in case the market retreats under the nearest support, located at around 2600 points.

On the currency section of the Moscow Stock Exchange this morning, the ruble is moderately strengthening against major world currencies. So, by 9.10 Moscow time, the dollar and yuan are losing up to 0.1%, trading around 80.1 and 11.31 rubles, respectively, the euro is decreasing by 0.3%, retreating to the area of 86 rubles. Today, the peak of tax payments will take place, which will further reduce the support of the national currency from exporters. At the same time, the ruble has not been able to use it, as well as the improvement in the situation in oil prices. In fact, the dollar/ruble pair has spent the last sessions in consolidation around 80 rubles. It should be noted that a similar situation of the "sideways" was observed in preparation for the peak of tax payments in March and April.

Bogdan Zvarich, Chief Analyst of the <url> financial platform

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