The external background on Wednesday morning can be called moderately positive. Oil prices are trying to develop the growth started the day before, and the mood on world stock markets before the reports of a number of high-tech giants in the United States is mostly optimistic.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with an increase in the three main indices by 0.7-1.6%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. The S&P 500 indicator has stabilized above 5,000 points and continues its corrective movement towards the key short-term resistance area of 5,140 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart) before the reports of such companies as Meta Platforms, Qualcomm and IBM on Wednesday. On the macroeconomic front, preliminary estimates on Tuesday showed an unexpected return of the US manufacturing sector in April to a contraction in activity with lower growth rates in the services sector. The data may support hopes for a softening of the Fed's position.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.3% in the morning, heralding another day of corrective purchases. Tesla's quarterly results after the close of major trading showed a 9% drop in the company's revenue, but its shares jumped more than 10% as part of a retreat from recent lows. As the day progresses, the US expects strong data on durable goods orders for March.
Trading in Europe yesterday ended with an increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index by 1.4%. The indicator accelerated growth during the session following an improvement in sentiment in the United States. At the same time, statistics signaled the continuation of the trend towards a slowdown in the manufacturing sectors of the countries of the region.
Positive dynamics prevails at trading in Asia in the morning against the background of purchases on Western platforms. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.2%. The Australian ASX 200 almost did not change positions after the release of data on the country's consumer inflation for the first quarter, which turned out to be higher than forecasts. China's indices are rising within 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is gaining 2.3%, testing medium-term resistance of 17,215 points due to optimism in the high-tech sector.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil are adding less than 0.5% in the morning after rising by about 1.5% the day before. Quotes returned to the resistance area of $88.90 and $84, respectively (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts), stabilization above which will allow us to talk about the restoration of a short-term bullish trend with the prospect of updating annual highs. On Wednesday, the market is waiting for the report of the US Department of Energy on reserves. API data at the same time showed a decrease in oil reserves by 3.23 million barrels against growth forecasts of 1.8 million barrels – a positive signal.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices fell by 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively, the day before. After updating the next maximum since 2022 (3487 points), the ruble indicator headed for support of 3415 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart) along with the correction of many stocks. The dollar RTS also updated its peak from 2022 (1178 points), after which it aimed at 1155 points (also the average Bollinger band of the daily chart).
The ruble is strengthening in the morning on the Moscow Exchange within 0.5% against the dollar, euro and Chinese yuan, located at 92.85 rubles, 99.40 rubles and 12.77 rubles, respectively. The Russian currency is testing important short-term values of 92.90 rubles and 12.80 rubles against the dollar and yuan, stabilization below which will allow us to expect a new wave of appreciation.
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market may try to retreat from the local lows reached the day before due to improved sentiment abroad and the proximity of important short-term supports, stabilization below which can accelerate profit-taking. Sberbank on Tuesday announced record dividends for 2023 in the amount of 33.3 rubles per share with a yield of 10.7%, but the market took advantage of the news as an excuse to fix profits. In the evening, MTS also announced the final dividends for 2023: payments will amount to 35 rubles. per share with a yield of 11% to the current price, while the company increased the minimum amount of dividends for the next two years from 28 rubles to 35 rubles. Most likely, investors in Russia will be ready to return to buying dividend stories after a short-term correction.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital, https://veles-capital.ru/analytics /
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