Oil creeps to $80, supporting the stock market

Alexey Antonov, ALOR BROKER 29 March 2023 14:36

After strong growth on Monday, some investors decided yesterday to lock in some speculative profits. And a very, very small part. A couple of months ago, any serious market growth in the next couple of days was recorded almost completely, but now there are few people willing to sell shares. This indicates the strength of the market and the desire to continue growth. Perhaps some serious correction will follow when the Moscow Exchange Index leaves closer to 2500 points, and even then negative reasons will be needed for it.

The Savings Bank still looks very strong, which is not allowed to fall by the 25 rubles promised this year. dividends per share, as well as expectations of no less payments next year. On paper, we keep our goal at 240 rubles, without excluding braking or even a small correction from 220 rubles.

The oil industry looks strong, which is supported by the improvement of the situation with the sale of Russian oil and the rise in oil prices. This morning, oil is getting more expensive by half a percent, standing at about $78.5. A breakdown above the 80 mark may provoke an acceleration in the growth of both oil and shares of Russian oil companies.

Now it is worth paying attention to Gazpromneft. Since the end of February, the paper has been trading in an uptrend, and yesterday it closed on resistance. Its breakdown may accelerate the rise, and the paper will begin to close the dividend gap.

Rosneft is already trading higher than before the January cutoff of the register, but also on resistance.

Lukoil has been growing faster than the oil industry as a whole in recent days, where hopes for generous dividends are the main driver. If they are not justified, then the rollback of the paper can be serious.

In the outsiders of the day yesterday, there were shares of developers on the information that the Bank of Russia intends to increase the amount of reserves for some developer programs and mortgage loans issued at rates below the market. The decision is absolutely correct. Low mortgage interest rates and various installments are achieved mainly due to the fact that the developer raises the initial prices. In fact, those who buy housing with their own money pay for the "beneficiaries". We believe that the most favorable times for the shares of developers have passed, in the near future they are unlikely to be better than the market.

The ruble lost support from the tax period yesterday, and after lunch slightly accelerated the decline. As before, the Russian currency does not react to the rise in oil prices. The tax period only stopped the devaluation, but did not lead to a significant strengthening of the ruble. This gives reason to believe that even if there are not very strong negative reasons, the dollar-ruble pair will quickly go to the 80 area. We are not waiting for a pair much higher than this mark yet.

Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER 

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