The Russian stock market rose yesterday. This was not surprising, since since the beginning of this year, in the vast majority of cases, the indicator has been growing on Mondays. But still, a 2 percent rise looks excessive in the absence of reasons for this. But one way or another, the market ended the three-day consolidation with a powerful upward surge. Now the road is open for movement to the 2500 point mark.
Together with the market, the shares of the Savings Bank went up from the short-term sideways, rising by more than 4 percent. We are still waiting for the paper to leave in the area of 240 rubles. with an intermediate stop at 220. It is not worth paying particularly strong attention to the technical overbought of the stock, the desire to receive huge dividends can overpower the technique.
Shares of many oil companies were better than the market yesterday. We expect this trend to continue, unless, of course, a new wave of financial fears covers the world, which will lead to a decline in oil. This morning, oil is getting cheaper by half a percent and costs a little less than $77.5 per barrel.
We will not single out someone separately from the oil industry now. Most likely, they will all go more or less evenly, each paper has its own growth driver. In the long term, Rosneft and Gazpromneft are the most interesting.
Aeroflot took off by 11.2%. The reason for the movement was the company's operational data for February, which demonstrated an increase in passenger traffic and seat occupancy. The fact that the company has started to disclose monthly results may indicate the confidence of management in the recovery of the air transportation market.
But still, such a rise in paper looks redundant. There are strong doubts that by the end of this year the company will earn a profit. There is no special desire to buy losses. However, the market lives by expectations.
The shares of the Moscow Stock Exchange looked 10 times worse than the market. The Supervisory Board has not changed its recommendation regarding the payment of low dividends. We do not see the exchange's ability to achieve last year's financial results this year. There is no certainty that the current decline in dividend payments is just a one-time story. So there is no reason for paper to be better than the market.
The ruble yesterday rose against the dollar by not half a percent. This is very little with a 2.5 percent increase in oil and the onset of the peak of the tax period. Thus, you should be prepared for the fact that at the beginning of the month, when the volume of sales of foreign exchange earnings traditionally decreases, the dollar-ruble pair will turn up and may well touch the 80 mark.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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