The Moscow Exchange index and the ruble are ready for a rebound

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Alexey Antonov, ALOR BROKER 17 March 2023 11:13

The situation on Western markets began to improve yesterday afternoon thanks to the measures taken by the Fed and the ECB to rescue troubled banks and their depositors – they were simply given money. Thus, the fire is flooded with money and risky assets have gone up. It is very likely that these measures will not solve the problems radically.

This morning, oil is growing by 0.8% and costs more than $75. Quotes of "black gold" simply need to add at least another dollar and a half so that the recent breakdown down of the support of $76 becomes false, and the "bears" began to cover the shorts more actively.

Yesterday, quite unexpectedly, Lukoil and Gazpromneft became one of the best among highly liquid stocks, adding about 1.5% on rather weak oil. It would be nice for Rosneft to go in pursuit of its competitors today, and at the same time apply for an upward exit from the sidewall of recent days.

From speculative ideas, it is worth paying attention to the shares of the Moscow Stock Exchange. They have sunk the most since last Friday after the management's decision to cut the dividends in half. The paper is locally oversold, a rebound on it is simply necessary.

The main owner and chairman of the Board of Directors of MMK, Viktor Rashnikov, said on Thursday that he was ready to consider paying dividends no earlier than December. MMK shares were among the top ten outsiders. We believe that the market reaction to Rashnikov's statement was more emotional, since he had previously spoken about his intention not to distribute profits until the end of his own. While other ferrous metallurgists are also not eager to pay dividends.

The dollar-ruble pair tried to test the strength of resistance 76.5 yesterday. The test continues this morning. We see no reason to break through this barrier and further devaluation of the ruble. Next week, the ruble will begin to receive more active support from the tax period, which, together with the rising price of oil, will support the ruble exchange rate.

The Bank of Russia will announce a decision on the key rate today. Since not only inflation, but also inflation expectations have been declining in recent weeks, the regulator has no particular reason to raise the rate. Most likely, he will leave the rate unchanged, but at the same time he will maintain a rather harsh rhetoric. This outcome of events will not affect the markets in any way.

Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER 

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