The ruble has a good chance of growth

Alexey Antonov, ALOR BROKER 24 March 2023 11:14

The most interesting trading took place yesterday in the currency section of the Moscow Exchange. At the end of last week, the dollar-ruble pair broke through the resistance of 76.5, thereby opening a technical way for itself to move to the 80 area. But for such a campaign, either negative geopolitical news or another wave of falling oil was needed. They did not follow.

On the contrary, oil began to grow from the middle of the week, and on Thursday evening it jumped well on the fall of the dollar on the world market after the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting. It is quite logical that speculators began to cover profits by buying the ruble against the dollar. The Russian currency was also supported by the approach of the peak of the tax period.

As a result, the rate of the "Russian" rose yesterday by almost 1.4% to 76 rubles per dollar. Now it would be nice for the ruble to continue growing in order to move to support 74.5. Its penetration will set the actual goal of reducing to the area of 70-72 rubles per dollar, but it is too early to talk about this.

It is possible that today we will not see a strong movement of the ruble. Still, before the weekend, in the conditions of current geopolitical tensions, there will be those who want to buy a dollar to hedge ruble positions. However, exporters may become more active at any time, fearing that the ruble may be more expensive on Monday or Tuesday.

We are not expecting any fundamental changes in the stock market today. The market refused to remove the technical overbought correction, perhaps with a slight decrease, and there are no reasons for growth yet.

From the very opening, we are waiting for a strong growth in the shares of the Bank "Saint Petersburg". The Board of Directors recommended paying dividends at the rate of 21.16 rubles. per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of just over 15%. And this is in addition to the 11.81 rubles that have already been paid for the first half of the year.

Attention should be paid today to the shares of the Moscow Stock Exchange, the management of which should make a final recommendation on dividends. It is possible that, having seen a clearly negative reaction of investors to the unwillingness to generously share profits, the dividends will be increased. This can cause the paper to grow.

The external background can still be interpreted as weakly neutral: oil, gold and US futures are trading around yesterday's close.

Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER 

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