The sanctions restrictions will significantly slow down the growth rate of the fuel and energy complex in the medium and long term. This was stated by the Deputy chairman of VEB.Russian Federation Andrey Klepach, speaking at the opening of the National Oil and Gas Forum 2024.
According to him, it is difficult to expect a significant increase in oil production until 2030. The production level may reach approximately 540 million tons.
Although sanctions have severely squeezed Russian oil exports to the west, Russia has managed to effectively reorient oil flows to the East. Exports to China have been further developed. But the main achievement was a sharp increase in supplies to India, the volume of which increased to 90 million tons of oil per year, and today accounts for 37% of the total volume of Russian oil exports.
According to A.Klepach, LNG and pipeline gas supplies to China have good long-term prospects, but political decisions are also needed to fully realize this potential.
In addition, there may be an increase in domestic demand for petroleum products and products of the gas chemical industry.
The weak side of the current economic situation, A. Klepach, called the lack of a full-fledged forecast for the development of the country's fuel and energy complex, which makes it impossible to find trends and build work in accordance with them.
In his opinion, the coal sector and small hydropower plants remained undervalued in the structure of national energy resources.
