The Bank of Russia predicts that during 2024 the banking sector will move from surplus to liquidity deficit. By the end of this year, the structural liquidity deficit may amount to 0.6-1.4 trillion rubles. This is reported in the Central Bank's commentary on the medium-term macroeconomic forecast.
The regulator believes that budget operations in 2024 will lead to an influx of liquidity to banks. This will happen, among other things, due to the use of NWF funds in excess of the budget rule to finance part of the budget expenditures of the current year, as well as due to the receipt in January of funds that did not have time to come to banks in December last year.
At the same time, the Central Bank's operations in the domestic foreign exchange market in 2024 related to the replenishment and use of NWF funds, including taking into account all operations carried out with NWF funds in 2023, will compensate for this budget inflow.
The expected transition of the banking sector in the second half of 2024 from a structural surplus to a liquidity deficit means that short-term money market rates will shift slightly above the key rate. All other things being equal, this will make a small contribution to increasing the rigidity of monetary conditions, according to the Central Bank.
