In August, the global oil market experienced mixed price dynamics

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AK&M 04 September 2023 12:03

In August, the global oil market experienced mixed price dynamics. Until the first decade of August, prices steadily rose, coming close to $90 per barrel of Brent crude, then two weeks in a row there was a decline in prices on signals of weak demand in China and expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the United States.

This is stated in issue No. 1538 of the monthly bulletin "Branches of the Russian economy: production, finance, securities. Oil and gas production and oil refining" dated August 30, 2023.

Despite the current voluntary reduction in production by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the weakness of global demand, in particular from China, is likely to prevent the transition to further recovery of oil prices. In addition, a contradiction is brewing between the voluntary reduction of production by the key participants of the OPEC+ agreement and the increase in production by the members of the organization who have experienced difficulties with production in recent years.

Production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia in June decreased by 100 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous month, to an average of 10.77 million barrels per day. Such data is provided by OPEC. Of this volume, 9.5 million barrels per day are accounted for crude oil and 1.3 million barrels per day for condensate. Rosstat did not provide data on the volume of oil production in Russia by the end of June, as this is prohibited by the Government of the Russian Federation. In turn, the International Energy Agency in its monthly report states that in July the volume of production of liquid hydrocarbons amounted to 10.74 million barrels per day, of which oil accounted for 9.4 million barrels per day.

In January-July 2023, natural gas production in Russia amounted to 302 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 14.2% compared to the same period in 2022. In July of this year, Russia produced 34.3 billion cubic meters of gas (-6.7% YoY). Associated petroleum gas production in Russia increased by 2.8% to 61.5 billion in the first seven months. cubic meters. In July, the indicator increased by 11.1% year—on-year, and by 3.5% month-on-month. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced 2.2 million tons, which is 7.9% less than in July 2022, and 4.3% less than in June 2023. In January-July 2023, LNG production decreased by 4.4% compared to January-July 2022 and amounted to 18.7 million tons.

The cost volume of pipeline gas supplies to China from Russia in January-July 2023 amounted to $3.94 billion. At the same time, the cost of Russian pipeline gas supplies to China for the whole of 2022 amounted to $3.98 billion. Russia also supplied 4.46 million tons of liquefied natural gas worth $2.98 billion to China in seven months of 2023. The growth in the volume of deliveries in January-July of this year amounted to 21.9% compared to the same period in 2022.

For a more detailed analysis, read issue No. 1538 of the monthly bulletin "Branches of the Russian Economy: Production, Finance, Securities. Oil and gas production and oil refining" dated August 30, 2023.