In the oil market in April-May 2026, there were multidirectional price dynamics. The global oil market situation was determined primarily by the geopolitical shock in the Middle East, which sharply reduced supply expectations and raised Brent quotations to levels above $100 per barrel. By mid-May, the market had become entrenched in a deficit and high volatility regime. This is stated in issue No. 1673 of the monthly bulletin "Branches of the Russian Economy: manufacturing, finance, securities. Oil and Gas production and Oil refining" dated May 20, 2026.
At the same time, the price was influenced by mixed signals from the balance of supply and demand: a reduction in inventories, a revision of the forecasts of the IEA and EIA towards a more tense market supported quotes, while expectations of a partial recovery in flows and weak demand limited further growth. The market did not see any progress in the negotiations between the United States and Iran, so in May, crude oil prices were around $107-108 per barrel of Brent crude. According to the US Department of Energy, Brent should have remained around $106 per barrel in May and June.
Oil production in Russia in April significantly decreased by an average of 107 thousand barrels per day compared to March. Such data is provided by OPEC. Thus, production in April amounted to 9.057 million barrels per day against 9.164 million barrels per day in March.
In June 2026, Russia will be able to increase oil production by 62,000 barrels per day compared to May, to 9.762 million barrels per day. In May, the maximum permitted oil production in Russia was 9.699 million barrels per day.
At the same time, the estimates of the International Energy Agency are different — the organization believes that by the end of April, oil production in Russia amounted to 8.83 million barrels per day, which is 460 thousand less than a year earlier and 130 thousand less than in March 2026.
Gas production in Russia in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 6% compared to the same period last year, to 191.7 billion cubic meters. m. Such data is provided by Rosstat. Production of combustible natural gas (natural gas) in three months increased by 7.0% year-on-year to 166 billion cubic meters. In the reporting period, weather conditions had a stimulating effect on demand for energy resources. The production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Russia in January-March increased by 9.3% compared to the same period in 2025 and amounted to 9.5 million tons.
Russia's revenues from the export of oil and petroleum products in April 2026 increased by $6.28 billion year-on-year to $19.18 billion. This is evidenced by data from the International Energy Agency. Compared to March, revenue growth was $110 million. At the same time, the physical volume of oil exports in April increased by 250 thousand barrels per day by March, to 4.88 million barrels per day. And according to estimates by the analytical center Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), in April 2026, Russia's monthly revenues from crude oil exports increased by 4% compared to the previous month and amounted to €734 million per day.
For a more detailed analysis, see Issue No. 1673 of the monthly bulletin "Branches of the Russian Economy: Manufacturing, Finance, Securities. Oil and Gas production and Oil refining" dated May 20, 2026.
