Important events of the day
Russia: composite PMI from S&P Global in December – 09:00 Moscow time.
USA: real estate price index in October – 17:00 Moscow time.
Russia: The final estimate of GDP in the third quarter is 19:00 Moscow time.
USA: minutes of the last Fed meeting – 22:00 Moscow time.
In the spotlight
On Monday, a moderately negative sentiment prevailed in the global market. There were no fundamentally significant events, a corrective decline was observed mainly in precious metals and in stocks of technology companies. The Russian market was actively growing at the beginning of the day on hopes for an early de-escalation. However, the geopolitical news released in the evening turned the mood around, and as a result, the Moscow Exchange index ended Monday with a decline. Locally, the day in the Russian Federation was marked by the publication of the minutes of the December meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. In it, the regulator recalled that on December 19, the choice between the scenarios (-100, -50 and 0 bp) differed significantly in assessing the sustainability of the November-December sharp slowdown in inflation. In addition, the regulator noted that it expects to understand the consequences of the VAT increase on prices only by the March, and not by the February, meeting.
Today, the global market will primarily wait for the publication of the Fed's "minutes", which may, among other things, give a number of signals regarding the parameters of the QE program. Individual assets can also be affected by statistics on the American real estate market. Investors in Russia will continue to play out the latest geopolitical events on Tuesday. Under these conditions, this morning's data for December, which showed a decline in the composite PMI to the lowest level since December, is unlikely to have a particularly noticeable effect on the dynamics of Russian assets.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices rose yesterday. The quotes were again supported by fears of supply disruptions. The weakening of the US dollar may also play a role on the side of raw materials. Today, Brent futures are trading at $61.8/bbl. Apparently, the quotes will continue to move around $61-62/bbl for now. waiting for new drivers.
On Monday, the ruble weakened. In addition to the factor of the end of the tax period, geopolitical disappointments could exert pressure on the Russian currency in the evening. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 11.16 rubles/yuan. Other EM currencies have been moving in different directions since morning. In general, with the current introductory CNYRUB rate, the outgoing year 2025 may end closer to 11.15-11.20 rubles/yuan.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
