Inflation in the Russian Federation this year will be 7-8%, in 2026 it will return to 4%. This is reported in the press release of the Central Bank following the meeting of the board of directors, at which the regulator left unchanged the key rate of 21% per annum.
Seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 8.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, compared with 12.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The same core inflation rate averaged 8.9% after 13.4% in the previous quarter.
In reducing inflationary pressure, the impact of tight monetary conditions on demand is increasingly evident. However, it is premature to judge the sustainability of the emerging trends. Annual inflation, as estimated on April 21, was 10.3%, the regulator emphasizes.
The inflation expectations of the population, businesses, and financial market participants have not changed significantly since March. Overall, inflation expectations remain elevated. This prevents a faster slowdown in inflation.
In the baseline scenario, the Central Bank expects that inflationary pressures will continue to decrease in the coming months. This will be facilitated by the cooling of lending and high savings activity.
