Experts from the consulting company Yakov and Partners, together with the largest Russian private network of clinics, Medsi, part of the AFK Sistema Group, studied the current situation and prospects for the development of digital technologies in medicine. According to the results of the study "Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare", the Russian AI market in medicine can grow more than 6 times and reach 78 billion rubles. by 2030, against 12 billion rubles in 2024.
Global trends confirm the increasing importance of AI in healthcare. In 2024, the global AI market in medicine amounted to 22 billion US dollars and, according to forecasts by Yakov & Partners and Medsi, it will grow to 130-160 billion US dollars by 2030. At the same time, the share of medicine will be about 8% of the total AI market.
The positive dynamics is largely due to the fact that AI has become a key driver of new opportunities in the healthcare sector, experts say. Modern AI systems are capable of transforming the interaction between a doctor and a patient, including support, care, and performing the functions of medical assistants. In addition, AI technologies make it possible to extract meaningful information from medical records that previously remained unstructured and difficult to access, including information about a family history or patient complaints in free form. These data can be transformed into a structured format, which, according to the authors of the report, opens the way to the creation of new predictive models and a fundamentally new stage in the development of personalized medicine.
As part of the study, experts, with the participation of doctors from the Medsi clinic network, conducted a comprehensive assessment of more than 80 practical AI-based solutions aimed at medical applications. Based on the results of the analysis, four priority areas with the greatest potential for implementation in Russian medical institutions were identified: digital assistants, clinical summary, physician assistant and expert control. According to doctors, these solutions have high applied value, can significantly improve the effectiveness of clinical practice, shorten the duration of admission and have significant potential for commercialization.
"According to our estimates, by 2030, these product groups can form a market with a potential of 65 billion rubles in Russia. The introduction of AI products in medical institutions will help to increase operational efficiency, improve patient satisfaction and significantly reduce healthcare costs," said Alexander Pilipchuk, Director of Strategy and Digital Transformation at Medsi Group.
The authors of the study identified two of the most promising areas and developed MVP prototypes of the corresponding products. One of them was the automatic medical history summarization service integrated into the medical information system. This tool allows the doctor to obtain a compressed AI-generated picture of the patient's condition in a few minutes: key episodes of the disease, significant deviations in laboratory parameters, pathologies identified, and other clinically important parameters.
"Already at the stage of internal clinical trials, the product demonstrates significant results. Doctors note a reduction in patient admission time by up to 10%. At the same time, the system is able to extract over 500 unique parameters that were previously unavailable for analysis. The data obtained opens up broad prospects for the development of predictive models based on artificial intelligence. Internal surveys confirm the high level of interest in the solution: 92% of doctors positively assessed its potential and expressed their willingness to use the system in the future," says Maxim Bolotskikh, partner at Yakov & Partners.
The second product is the Psychological Assistant mobile application for emotion management, which is already used by over 7,000 Medsi employees. It features a chat with an AI psychologist, contains more than 60 proven techniques and exercises for dealing with anxiety, as well as instructional videos from relevant experts.
"We hope that the effect of already created products will attract the attention of developers and investors to the topic of AI and digital healthcare, and medical institutions will actively experiment and implement such solutions. Today, the market is maturing: the focus is shifting to projects with real clinical and commercial benefits. Already 64% of medical organizations that have implemented solutions based on generative AI have noted a positive return on investment, which is a clear confirmation of the effectiveness of such technologies. It is precisely such initiatives that will not only improve operational efficiency, but also set a new benchmark for the quality of medical care, and ensure a sustainable market advantage for companies in the next 3-5 years," said Marina Dorokhova, Director of Yakov & Partners.
The experts of the report identify two scenarios for the development of the digital healthcare market in Russia:
The conservative scenario assumes that the current pace will continue: the entry of developers into the market will remain limited, and the volume of investments will amount to 5-10 million US dollars (about 450-900 million rubles) – only slightly above the level of 2024.
An optimistic scenario is possible if new players appear who are able to adapt AI products to the needs of medical institutions and integrate them into clinical processes. In this case, investments can grow to 20-30 million US dollars (about 1.8–2.7 billion rubles) and exceed the figures for 2023.
The market is facing typical problems for global healthcare: excessive documentation, outdated medical IT systems, as well as a shortage of personnel. All this makes improving operational efficiency a strategically important task, and digital technologies are a key tool for its implementation, experts believe.
"Medicine is one of the most difficult areas to implement AI due to its high responsibility for the life and health of patients. The long journey to market, high cost, and quality requirements require close collaboration between developers and medical organizations. More than half of clinics abroad are already planning to develop such partnerships, and similar initiatives are needed in Russia. This will create conditions for the emergence of AI solutions that can significantly improve the quality of medical care," concluded Nikita Vlasov, consultant at Yakov & Partners.
A joint analytical study of Sistema's medical asset with Yakov and Partners covered more than a thousand Medsi clients, over 70% of whom are ready to use AI agents for psychological support. In-depth interviews with doctors from 50 specialties were also conducted and more than 800 healthcare startups around the world were analyzed.
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