While we were celebrating May Day, the Fed held a meeting at which the rate was expected to remain unchanged. Fed members noted the good growth of the US economy, but at the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that inflation in the United States is too high, and in recent months there have been no downward trends. Now the market believes that the rate is unlikely to be lowered before the autumn. But in general, the Fed's rhetoric can be called neutral. Global risky assets reacted to the Fed meeting with a slight decrease, but this can rather be called a small correction "in fact".
A very bad picture is emerging for oil, which fell by 2.9% yesterday after the same decline on Tuesday. In the Middle East, the situation began to calm down, and the geopolitical premium went out of oil quotes. In addition, very negative data on oil reserves in the United States came out yesterday – the indicator soared by 7.3 million barrels with expectations of a decrease of 2.3 million. As a result, oil yesterday went to the area of $83.3 per barrel. This morning, it is growing by 0.6%, trying to hold the support of $ 84. But so far it looks like a rebound at the closing of the shorts. If this barrier does not stand, then a decrease to $81 is possible.
The domestic stock market declined by a quarter of a percent on Tuesday. On the daily chart of the Moscow Stock Exchange, resistance is forming in the area of 3480 points. It is unlikely that it will be possible to break through with such cheap oil. Moreover, today we are waiting for the "red" market opening. However, in general, the trend in the Russian stock market remains upward.
May is a month of good growth for the Russian stock market. Over the past 5 years, if we do not take the results of the failed 2021, the average increase in the Moscow Stock Exchange Index in the last month of spring is 3.9%. There is every reason to believe that the coming May will not be an exception to the rule. The market will be looking for any opportunity to rise, driven by the season of buying stocks for dividends. However, in this context, we would like to warn investors that this year the dividend gaps for most securities will be closed for a very long time. Therefore, it may make sense to participate in a pre-individual rally, but exit the papers a few days before the registry is cut off. Of the promising securities for May, we like ferrous metallurgists and high technologies the most, although the latter look overbought.
The foreign exchange market is still relatively calm. For the first 2 days of the week, the ruble fell against the dollar at very low trading speeds. Currently, there are practically no large exporters with their currency sales at the auction, so the market liquidity is low, and fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate may be increased. We are not waiting for fundamental changes in the ruble yet, but the fallen oil for it, as well as the stock market, is a rather negative factor.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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