The external background on Tuesday morning can be described as moderately negative. The mood abroad is mostly pessimistic, and Brent oil prices are declining after jumping up the day before. Gold quotes are holding slightly above $4,200/oz.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with a predominant decline in the three main indexes within 0.5%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. The indicator At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average felt the most confident and closed up 0.4%, trying to make up for the weakness of previous weeks. Trading on the US bond market was not held on Monday, and on Tuesday, the quarterly reporting season starts in the country with the financial results of issuers such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo&Co and Citigroup. The US stock market as a whole remains strong, hoping, among other things, for the restrained tone of the Fed until the end of this year.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.1% in the morning, consolidating near record peaks before the start of the quarterly reporting season.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with an increase in the index Euro Stoxx 50 by 0.5%. The indicator was aiming for a short-term resistance of 6260 points at the beginning of the week, but since mid-August it has been developing a medium-term downward trend, supported by high energy prices. On Tuesday, the final data was expected to confirm the acceleration of German consumer inflation in September from 2.9% to 3.3% yoy.
A negative trend prevails at trading in Asia in the morning against the background of sales in the IT sector and fears of increased competition from China and, in particular, the developer of CXMT chips. Japan's Nikkei 225 is down 1.7% after a long weekend. Tuesday's statistics showed a slowdown in Japan's manufacturing inflation in September from 7.6% to 6.8% yoy (+7.6% was forecast). The Australian ASX 200 rose by less than 0.1% after the publication of the minutes of the country's Reserve Bank, which indicated its moderately tough tone. Chinese indices are losing within 0.5%. Hong Kong The Hang Seng retreated from the day's lows and declined by 0.14%. South Korea's KOSPI fell 5.4%, led by chip makers SK Hynix (-10%), Samsung (-7.2%) and LG Innotek (-6%).
December Brent crude futures are losing slightly more than 1% in the morning after jumping up by about 3% the day before, when quotes rose to another high since mid-September, to the resistance of $107.50/bbl, amid continuing tensions in the Middle East. The next target of the futures movement may be the September peak of $109.97/bbl. Investors continue to assess the prospects for global supply and demand, and on Tuesday, in particular, they are waiting for the publication of OPEC's monthly report. The day before, the organization announced a reduction in the forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 400 thousand barrels per day against 1.4 million barrels per day expected at the beginning of the year. OPEC, however, expects demand to recover in 2027.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices retreated from the day's lows the day before, but did not show a unified trend. The ruble indicator decreased by 0.53%, remaining below 2,400 points. The dollar-denominated RTS gained 0.64% and was aiming for 900 points due to the currency factor. Buyers took a breather after the rally at the end of last week with the nearest resistances at 2,410 points and 910 points and supports at 2,360 points and 880 points, respectively.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange strengthened by 1.3% the day before, to 12.51 rubles, continuing the correction from last week's low of 12.84 rubles since the beginning of September and, obviously, reacted to geopolitical signals and the conclusion of a diesel deal with the United States. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 83.91 rubles and 94.03 rubles, respectively (against 84.90 rubles and 94.94 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting the growth of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market may not show significant changes and will remain waiting for important geopolitical and economic signals. The pressure on the indices will be exerted by the dividend gaps for Gazprom Neft and Tatneft: the latest key stories based on the results of the first half of 2026. Now investors will switch to the expectations of payments for 9 months of 2026, which LUKOIL has already recommended with a yield of 9%, and on October 15, the board of directors may announce Cian. Another interesting candidate for interim dividends is X5 Retail Group, whose shares returned to steady growth in the fall.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
