Important events of the day
USA: the first estimate of US GDP in the third quarter is 15:30 Moscow time.USA: PCE price index in September – 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: personal income in September – 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: personal expenses in September – 15:30 Moscow time.
Eurozone: ECB rate decision – 16:15 Moscow time.
In the spotlight
Cautious optimism prevailed on the global market on Wednesday. The Fed was not surprised either by the decision to keep the rate or by its rhetoric. It is worth noting only the announced plans of K. Warsh for changes in the operations of the regulator. In particular, next year one meeting will be replaced by a "strategy meeting" – there will be no decisions on the rate. The Russian market continued its growth yesterday. Investors played off further geopolitical news, amid which expectations of an easing of sanctions against individual entities increased. At the same time, evening data from Rosstat were mixed – weekly inflation remained relatively low, but the cooling of the labor market stopped at the moment, and September economic growth could hardly be called weak.
Today, investors will pay attention to a number of macro data from the United States, in particular, the first estimate of American GDP for the third quarter. In addition, the day will be marked by the ECB meeting. If the European regulator decides to unexpectedly raise the rate, the EURUSD rate may return closer to 1.125 $/€. There are no fundamentally significant local events scheduled for Thursday in Russia.
Oil and the ruble
Yesterday, oil prices were recovering. The attacks on Saudi Arabia and fears of an escalation of the conflict supported the quotes. Today, however, December Brent futures dropped to $114.6/bbl. based on reports of the US Vice president's attempts to resume dialogue with Iran. In general, black gold will continue to show volatile dynamics for now, playing off multidirectional geopolitical news and waiting for more specifics.
The ruble strengthened on Wednesday, despite the end of the tax period. High oil prices and geopolitical hopes continue to play on the side of the Russian currency. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.05 rubles/yuan. The exchange rate is capable of going below 12.00 rubles/yuan at the moment, but next week concerns about increasing purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule may exert temporary pressure.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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