Important events of the day
Japan: The Bank of Japan's rate decision is 06:00 Moscow time.Eurozone: the first estimate of GDP in the third quarter is 13:00 Moscow time.
USA: the weekly number of oil drilling rigs is 20:00 Moscow time.
Russia: overview of trends in the pawnshop market from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 1H2026.
USA: statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve.
In the spotlight
The global market declined on Thursday. The assets were under pressure from multidirectional geopolitical news, weaker–than-expected reports from technology companies, and overnight news about the Binance hack. The Russian market showed its first decline in a week yesterday. At the moment, the flow of positive geopolitical news was interrupted, and now investors have paid attention to the statements of representatives of the Russian Federation, who sounded more skeptical. This contributed to the decline that was overdue as part of the correction. There were no significant macro data yesterday, and bidders had to play back the figures from Wednesday, including the October polls, which showed a moderate decrease in the consumer sentiment index in the Russian Federation.
Today, investors will continue to monitor the events of the reporting season, as well as the publication of macro data. In particular, the first estimate of GDP for the third quarter will be released in the eurozone. There are no fundamentally significant local events scheduled for Friday in Russia. Today's materials from the Central Bank will not have an impact on the broader market.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices were declining yesterday. Investors' hopes for achieving peace in the Middle East increased at the moment, but then the raw materials received support from the news about the attack on the ship in Hormuz and from increasingly specific media reports about the prospects of a major strike on Iran after the US elections. Today, the new January Brent futures are trading at $111.9/bbl, although yesterday it was moving towards $109.0/bbl. As usual, oil may remain expensive today due to fears of the realization of geopolitical risks over the weekend.
On Thursday, the ruble weakened. In the morning, the exchange rate dropped below the 12.00 RUB/yuan mark, after which it received an impulse to a corrective reversal. This was also facilitated by a general increase in negativity in the Russian market and a temporary decrease in oil prices to a local minimum. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.17 rubles/yuan. In general, the prospects for falling below 12.00 rubles/yuan remain, but it seems that we will see such levels later, and now investors' focus will traditionally shift to concerns about the growth of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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