The external background of Wednesday morning can be called ambiguous. Sentiment abroad is mixed, and Brent oil prices are trying to rise after a restrained decline the day before. Gold quotes dropped slightly below $4,200/oz.
Trading on the US stock exchanges the day before, after fluctuations throughout the day, ended with a 0.3% decline in the three main indexes, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The market moved to consolidation and reacted negatively to the quarterly results of the first banking giants JPMorgan (-0.9%), Goldman Sachs (-0.2%), Wells Fargo&Co (-3.1%) and Citigroup (-5.6%). At the same time, yields on "long" US government bonds remained at a distance from recent multi-year peaks. Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.2% in the morning.
On Wednesday, investors expect data on US consumer inflation for September to accelerate its base rate from 2.4% to 2.5% yoy, while slowing from 0.3% to 0.2% mom. The market is currently pricing in another increase in the Fed's interest rate before the end of this year, which is encouraging buyers.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with a decrease in the Euro Stoxx 50 index by 0.6%. The indicator came out of the intraday positive range and remained below the short-term resistance of 6260 points, reacting, among other things, to the deterioration of global sentiment in the IT sector, as well as to final estimates confirming increased inflation risks in Germany in September.
There has been no consistent trend in trading in Asia since this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.2%. The Australian ASX 200 declined by 0.64%. Chinese indices are losing within 2%. The data released on Wednesday showed a 31% YoY jump in Chinese imports in September, and a 36.3% YoY jump in exports, higher than forecasts. China's consumer inflation accelerated to 0.9% YoY last month, and manufacturing inflation accelerated to 5% yoy, higher than expected, but on a monthly basis, consumer price growth slowed to 0.2% mom. Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated from the day's peaks and hardly changed positions after testing the short-term resistance of 24,500 points during the session. South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.1%, missing the highs of the day amid mixed dynamics in shares of chip manufacturers Samsung (+0.8%) and SK Hynix (-1.2%).
December Brent crude futures are up 0.5% in the morning after falling slightly less than 1% the day before, when quotes, however, retreated from the day's lows and returned to the resistance of $107.50/bbl. The upward momentum in prices is supported by continued tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and the risks of new disruptions in oil supplies from the region. In addition, the situation between Iran and the United States may also escalate at any moment. In its monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026 to 180,000 barrels per day from 380,000 barrels per day and raised its forecast for 2027 to 2.55 million barrels per day from 2.36 million barrels per day. On Wednesday, the monthly market review will be published by the IEA.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices rose by about 1.6% the day before, due to the preservation of geopolitical hopes, rising to peaks since the second half of June (2,433 points) and the maximum since the beginning of July (914 points), respectively. The next resistances for indicators that have been developing a medium-term uptrend since the summer are the levels of 2,465 points and 920 points. The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange weakened by 0.2% the day before, to 12.53 rubles. The official dollar and euro exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 83.86 rubles and 93.77 rubles, respectively (against 83.91 rubles and 94.03 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting the ruble's growth against both currencies. Obviously, the ruble also reacted to geopolitical hopes at the beginning of the week.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is set to grow and reach new multi-week highs, while maintaining hopes for a softening of the US sanctions position. In particular, reports have appeared in the Western media about the low probability of imposing restrictions against the Russian Federation and its trading partners before the end of this week as part of the law signed by Trump in September. In the absence of strong negative signals, the Moscow Exchange index may test 2,500 points this week with the possible goal of moving to the peak area of 2,565 points since the beginning of June, where the downward trend line that began in March also runs.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
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