The external background on Friday morning can be described as moderately positive. Sentiment abroad has improved, and Brent oil prices are modestly declining after minor changes the day before. Gold quotes returned to the level of $4,200/oz.
External factors
Trading on the US stock exchanges on the eve, after weakness during the day, ended with the growth of the three main indexes by 0.1-1.1%, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which continued to play off the weakness of previous weeks. At the same time, the high-tech Nasdaq felt worse than the "broad market" on fears of a more active increase in interest rates in the United States this year amid high inflation. So, statistics on Thursday showed an unexpected acceleration in the growth of the basic producer price index in September from 4.8% to 5% yoy, and the main index from 5.6% to 6.3% yoy, which, unlike consumer inflation data, however, did not contribute to the growth of the dollar index. At the same time, US retail sales in September slowed down from 1.3% to 0.8% mom (expected +0.3%).
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.1% in the morning. The head of the Federal Reserve During his speech after the close of the main trading, Warsh did not comment on the prospects for interest rate movements, and yields on "long" US government bonds continue their downward correction, which relieves short-term pressure on stocks.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with a decrease in the index Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.3%, which recovered a significant portion of intraday losses against the backdrop of improving sentiment in the United States, but continues to develop a medium-term bearish trend. On Friday, the region is waiting for final data on the acceleration of eurozone consumer inflation in September from 2.4% to 2.5% yoy according to the baseline indicator and from 3.2% to 3.8% yoy according to the main indicator.
Positive dynamics prevailed at trading in Asia in the morning after the improvement of sentiment in the IT sector. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.6%. The Australian ASX 200 increased by 1%. Chinese indices are losing about 0.5%. Hong Kong The Hang Seng is adding about 0.2%, once again retreating from the short-term resistance of 24,500 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart). South Korea's KOSPI jumped 2%, following a rebound in chipmaker stocks and ending the week down 14.5%, the worst performance in the Asian region.
December Brent crude futures are losing slightly more than 0.5% in the morning after minor changes the day before, when quotes regained a significant portion of intraday losses and returned to the resistance area of $107.50/bbl. The main factor for the market remains the persistence of a high degree of tension in the Middle East and the risks of new disruptions in oil supplies from the region, in particular from Saudi Arabia, as well as due to difficulties with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. A report by the US Department of Energy on Thursday showed a decrease in oil reserves in the country last week by 8.55 million barrels, while oil reserves increased by about 1 million barrels, a positive signal for prices. At the same time, the IEA's plans for the early release of oil from strategic reserves, as well as the possible easing of US sanctions against the shadow fleet of Russia, Iran and Venezuela, are "bearish" factors for quotations.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices fell by 0.91% and 0.68%, respectively, the day before, continuing the correction from the peaks reached the day before in the second half of June (2,445 points) and since the beginning of July (918 points), respectively. The indicators dropped below the psychologically important values of 2,400 points and 900 points, with important short-term supports at 2,335 points and 875 points (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts), where they can continue to move in the absence of positive signals.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange weakened by 0.4% the day before, to 12.49 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 83.76 rubles and 93.76 rubles, respectively (against 83.94 rubles and 93.92 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting the restrained growth of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is inclined to moderate growth after yesterday's weakness, although the lack of new encouraging geopolitical signals may put pressure on sentiment. On the one hand, the US sanctions position against Russia is softening, but investors do not yet have official confirmation of this fact and the fate of the bill signed by Trump on large-scale anti-Russian restrictions remains unclear. On the corporate front, participants are recording profits after recommending Cyanide dividends for 9 months of 2026 with a yield of 4.9%. X5 Retail Group may also announce interim dividends for 2026 soon after the publication of its operating results on Friday. Yakutia, at the same time, did not include ALROSA's dividends in the three-year budget, which is negative for the company's investment case.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
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