Trading on the US stock exchanges on Friday ended with an increase in the three main indexes within 0.8%, this time led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The market was recovering from weakness the day before and did not pay much attention to the data on the fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October from 48.1 points to 46.3 points (47.5 points were expected), with a jump in the indicator of one–year inflation expectations from 4.6% to 4.7%, and five-year - from 3.4% to 3.5%. Investors reacted to the retreat of yields on "long" government bonds by the end of the week from multi-year peaks, as well as attempts at a downward correction in oil prices during the day.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.2% in the morning, trying to stabilize at record peaks. The week in the United States will be marked by the publication of data on consumer and industrial inflation for September, as well as the beginning of the reporting season of the largest issuers for the third quarter.
Trading on European stock exchanges on Friday ended with a 0.8% increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index. The indicator did not stay at the highs of the day and remains below the short-term resistance of 6260 points, but still followed the improvement in global sentiment. This week, the region will publish the final estimates of consumer inflation in the eurozone and Germany for September.
In the morning, despite Friday's purchases in the United States, negative dynamics prevailed in Asian trading. Japan's stock exchanges are closed for the weekend. The Australian ASX 200 increased by 0.76%. Chinese indices are losing within 2%. Data on consumer and industrial inflation, trade balance and new loans will be published in China this week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated from the highs of the day and hardly changes positions. South Korea's KOSPI fell 3.6%, reacting to reports about the progress of the Chinese company CXMT in developing new-generation chips, which caused profit-taking in such names as SK Hynix (-4.5%) and Samsung (-4.4%).
December Brent crude futures retreated from the day's lows in the morning and are almost unchanged after falling by less than 0.5% on Friday. Quotes remain at the $105/bbl mark, which they returned to last week amid the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East and, in particular, new attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the pressure on prices on Monday is exerted by the statements of the American president about the conclusion of an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine, which, however, have not yet been confirmed by the interested parties. The position of oil prices above $104 indicates that the risks of moving towards the September peak of $109.97 persist. In the coming days, world leaders will continue to discuss the situation on the energy market, and OPEC and the IEA will publish monthly reports.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices jumped by 4% and 4.6%, respectively, after restrained dynamics during the day, supported by news of a telephone conversation between Putin and Trump, as well as reports of an agreement with the Russian Federation on the supply of diesel fuel to the United States and the global market. Against this background, the ruble indicator has peaked since the end of June and exceeded 2,400 points, while the dollar-denominated RTS has risen to its maximum since the beginning of August and was aiming for 900 points.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday changed by less than 0.1% to 12.68 rubles, ending the week at a short distance from the minimum reached since the beginning of September at 12.84 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 84.90 rubles and 94.94 rubles, respectively (against 85.41 rubles and 95.47 rubles on the previous working day) reflecting the growth of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is prone to a downward correction after a jump to the top at the end of last week due to geopolitical news and will feel pressure, including from closing dividend gaps on shares of T-Technologies, Novatek, Norilsk Nickel and NovaBev Group. On Monday, the last day with semi-annual payments, Gazprom Neft and Tatneft securities are traded. In the future, investors will continue to wait for geopolitical signals, which are more likely to be encouraging from the United States at the moment, while sanctions pressure from Europe is increasing.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/article/geopoliticheskiy_ton_ssha_smyagchaetsya_sanktsionnoe_davlenie_so_storony_evropy_rastet/
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