On Wednesday, October 14, the Russian stock market opened trading on the premarket with a slight rise. The Moscow Stock Exchange index is currently rising by 0.33%, being just above 2,426 points. On Tuesday, the Moscow Exchange index ended trading with an increase of 1.57%, to 2426.53 points. The mark of 2,350 points, which a few days ago looked like a rather difficult resistance level, now looks like a fairly "distant" support level. And the nearest resistance already looks to be a corridor of 2440-2450 points. US President Trump said yesterday that a "diesel deal" with Russia is necessary for the whole world to bring down fuel prices, and the Russian stock market reacted to this statement as a signal of the beginning of a review of Washington's sanctions policy towards Russia.
This week, the deadline expires during which the President of the United States, according to the law on "infernal sanctions" adopted a month ago, must put these sanctions into effect or submit to Congress an informed decision on the refusal to impose them. Most likely, as some influential American media have already written, Trump will refuse to introduce them, since they will disrupt the "diesel deal," and Trump needs lower prices for diesel fuel and petroleum products in the United States before the elections.There is also some progress on the Ukrainian track, as Ukrainian President Zelensky said yesterday that he had sent an invitation to the special envoys of the US president, Witkoff and Kushner, to hold talks in Kiev on an "energy truce" with Russia. That is, in general, the geopolitical background for the Russian stock market continues to improve, and the prerequisites for the return of the Moscow Exchange index to the June levels of 2,500 points and above look increasingly achievable in the near future.
World oil prices have been rising since morning. The price of Brent is rising by 0.6% to $106.31 per barrel. US President Trump is once again threatening Iran with harsh decisions, and also promises Saudi Arabia's assistance in attacking the Yemeni Houthis, although it is not entirely clear whether such threats from the US president will be fulfilled or whether this is another high-profile PR campaign for the oil market. For today, we expect the price of Brent in the range of $ 104-108 per barrel.
Yesterday, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin said in an interview that inflation, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, was slightly higher than forecast in the third quarter of 2026, and the board of directors of the regulator will take this into account when deciding on the key rate on October 23. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, pro-inflationary factors in Russia still prevail over disinflationary ones. The main pro-inflationary factor is the loss of some production capacity as a result of attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on refineries and other industrial and infrastructure facilities in the third quarter of this year, which has already led to higher prices for fuel and a number of other goods. This statement generally looks like a direct hint from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation that the decision on the key rate in October will not be soft. We expect the regulator to keep the rate at the current level of 14% per annum again. Perhaps expectations of a tough decision by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in October are slightly constraining the current growth rate of the stock market.
The Moscow Stock Exchange announced that from October 20 it will completely stop trading in shares of PIK Group during the main trading session due to the upcoming delisting of these shares from the exchange. It should be recalled that on Tuesday, the issuer's shareholders decided to delist the shares, which is related to the consolidation of an almost 98% stake in one shareholder of Real Estate Assets JSC and the resulting right of the controlling shareholder to forcibly purchase the remaining shares from minority shareholders. In accordance with Russian law, tomorrow, October 15, will be the last trading day for PIK Group shares, when investors and individual shareholders will be able to sell or buy securities on the Moscow Stock Exchange with settlements using the T+1 system, and during the period from October 16 to October 20, trading in these securities will be available only to legal entities.. The purchase price of PIK Group shares from the remaining minority shareholders was announced at 551.4 rubles per share, that is, with a premium of approximately 0.5% by the close of trading on October 13. It should be recalled that October 20 will be the closing date of the PIK Group's shareholder register for the purpose of repurchasing shares from the remaining minority shareholders, and the repurchase procedure itself will have to be carried out by law within 25 days from the cut-off date. We are withdrawing the target price and rating of PIK Group shares and will terminate their analytical coverage after delisting these shares from the Moscow Stock Exchange.
The Russian ruble is slightly correcting downwards in morning trading after yesterday's strengthening. Today, by the end of the day, we expect the USD/RUB pair to move in the 83-84.5 RUB corridor, and CNY/RUB in the range of 12.4–12.7 rubles.
According to our forecasts, the Moscow Stock Exchange index may show dynamics in the range of 2410-2450 points during the day.
Natalia Milchakova, senior analyst at Freedom Global.
