Important events of the day
China: RatingDog manufacturing PMI in October – 04:45 Moscow time.Russia: manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in October – 09:00 Moscow time.
USA: ISM manufacturing PMI in October – 18:00 Moscow time.
Russia: review of banking regulation from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the third quarter.
USA: statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve.
In the spotlight
The global market declined significantly last week. The pressure on risky assets was due not so much to the growing risks of escalation in the Middle East and not so much to the Fed meeting, at which the rate was expected to remain at 4%. To a greater extent, securities fell due to weak reports from technology companies, which made the market question the currently dominant investment trend. Meanwhile, the Russian market has grown significantly over the past week. Russian investors were waiting for a positive course of future negotiations, including the news about the telephone conversation between the President of the Russian Federation and representatives of Finland and Norway. In addition, a number of macro data were released this week, which showed, among other things, a suspended cooling of the labor market. Nevertheless, in the current conditions, investors react less strongly to statistics.
This week will be marked primarily by events surrounding the US elections. In addition, October data on the US labor market is expected to be released on Friday, but we will see more relevant labor statistics before the December Fed meeting. In Russia, the October PMIs will be released this short week, as well as a summary of the last Central Bank meeting, which will shed more light on the regulator's decisions.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices have increased over the past week, excluding the effect of switching to longer-term monthly Brent futures. At the moment, fears of large-scale attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran have significantly increased on the market over the weekend. However, such risks still did not materialize, and today January Brent futures are trading at $110.1/bbl. For a while, the correction in raw materials may continue, but after the end of the US elections, the risks of escalation will return to the market's field of view, and oil may return to $114/bbl by the weekend.
The ruble did not show a bright directional trend last week. The tax period has finally ended, and currency sales on the market have become relatively lower, and the focus of bidders has now traditionally shifted towards the risks of further increases in currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.12 rubles/yuan. New volumes of transactions will be announced on Thursday, and before that, the exchange rate may move near 12.05-12.20 rubles/yuan.
Victor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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