Important events of the day
Russia: weekly inflation – 19:00 Moscow time.Russia: report "Social Economy. the position of the Russian Federation" from Rosstat in September – 19:00 Moscow time.
USA: the Fed's decision on the rate at the upper limit is 21:00 Moscow time.
Russia: full population survey data from inFOM in October.
Russia: the final version of the ONEGDCP of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2027-2029.
In the spotlight
The global market tended to grow on Tuesday. Investors played back the events of the reporting season, not really fearing tomorrow's Fed meeting. The Russian market was able to grow again yesterday. Bidders reacted positively to the news about the telephone conversation between the President of the Russian Federation and representatives of Finland and Norway. At the moment, we saw a pullback in the evening statements by the Russian Foreign Minister, who downplayed the significance of the call, but then media reports about the prospects of lifting US sanctions even before the conflict was resolved helped to update local highs. Among the local events, we can single out the publication of the Central Bank's September review, which recalled the slowdown in the growth of banks' demands on the economy.
Today, investors will focus on the results of the Fed meeting. However, the regulator is unlikely to be surprised by the rate hike, and new forecasts are not being published this time. In Russia, the environment will be saturated with macro-water. In particular, Rosstat will release a pool of September statistics, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will publish a new version of the Main Directions of the unified state monetary policy, which will be of particular interest to updated alternative forecasts of the Bank of Russia.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices continued to go down yesterday as part of the correction. However, this morning's news about the Israeli elections has increased investors' fears of an imminent escalation. Against this background, December Brent futures returned to $115.9/bbl. So far, the range of $115-117/bbl is relevant for prices. it remains, but at the moment the quotes may go a little lower on verbal interventions.
On Tuesday, the Russian ruble did not show any pronounced dynamics. At the same time, once again in the morning at the early opening, we saw a sharp increase in the exchange rate with its subsequent pullback. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.11 rubles/yuan. In general, there is a positive background for the ruble, and the prospects for testing the mark of 12 rubles / yuan remain, even taking into account the final completion of the tax period.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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