Important events of the day
USA: the number of vacancies in September is 18:00 Moscow time.USA: industrial orders in September – 18:00 Moscow time.
Russia: news index of business activity in October.
The Eurozone: statements by ECB representatives.
In the spotlight
On Monday, the global market showed mixed dynamics. A number of assets (especially technology companies) were noticeably falling, but other securities showed growth amid de-escalation news on the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Russian market has declined significantly. The correction was facilitated by a sharp drop in oil prices, the resumption of attacks on infrastructure (including through cyber channels) and the lack of breakthrough news on the negotiating track. However, official statements from the United States about plans to hold trilateral talks on November 10-11 appeared at night. From yesterday's macro data, we can only single out the morning data for October, which showed that the manufacturing PMI in the Russian Federation remained close to last month's levels.
Today, investors in the world will pay attention to a number of data from the United States. Of particular interest are the September figures for vacancies opened in the American market. In Russia, bidders will wait for further news on the negotiations, and locally Tuesday will be marked only by the publication of the October business activity news index. There will be no announcement of the auction parameters for the placement of OFZs, as they are not scheduled for this short week.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices dropped noticeably yesterday. The Iranian leader gave the Government the authority to negotiate with the United States, and then we saw a number of de-escalation news and statements. In particular, the American president announced that there were no plans to strike the country even after the elections. Today, Brent futures are trading at $107.1/bbl. We do not exclude that new verbal interventions may temporarily bring prices back below $104/bbl.
On Monday, the ruble weakened noticeably. In addition to the general negative in the Russian market and the fall in oil prices, it is worth noting the increased volume of net positions of individuals "against the ruble" in futures. This probably reflects the speculative bet on increasing purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule, which has already become typical. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.19 rubles/yuan. In general, the exchange rate risks moving closer to 12.30 rubles/yuan on Thursday, if the Ministry of Finance increases its plan to purchase the currency especially sharply. However, in the future, the ruble should strengthen correctively, as it did in October.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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