On Friday, the Moscow Exchange index maintained a downward trend, losing 1.4% amid increased geopolitical concerns and the lack of supportive signals from the Bank of Russia meeting.: The regulator lowered the key rate by a symbolic 50 bps, taking into account the current high levels, and also worsened forecasts for the 2026 rate and inflation, encouraging investors to evaluate the medium-term prospects of inflationary and economic processes, and, consequently, corporate profits, more conservatively. Against this background, the shares of rate-sensitive companies (AFK Sistema) became the outsiders of Friday's trading.: -6.4%; Mechel: -4.4%; Airplane: -3.9%): the attempt to rebound in this segment before the meeting was unsuccessful and we believe that the pressure on the securities of the accredited companies will continue this week.
In the chips segment, with the exception of Rostelecom (oa: -3.4%; pa: -1.9%), losses ranged up to 2.5%; the weakest were mainly papers more sensitive to PREP, such as steelmakers (Severstal: -2.2%; MNLK:-2.2%) and MTS (-2.3%). Among the rare growing securities, we will single out Polyus shares (+0.3%), supported by expectations of an unexpected meeting of the Board of Directors on dividends for the 3rd quarter, which will be held on November 5. Although the company will focus on management reporting (Polyus publishes IFRS reports on a semi–annual basis), high gold prices suggest that they may be good for the company - we expect 42-47 rubles, which implies a 2.2-2.3% return. There is not much, so it is difficult to expect strong speculative support for quotes – their dynamics will continue to be determined, rather, by the dynamics of gold prices. But we consider the decision itself as a whole to be positive for the company's case.
Based on the news background, we expect continued inertial pressure on the Russian stock market and increased volatility, with the Moscow Exchange index moving into the range of 2,400-2,500 points this week and likely attempts to test its lower bound.
Evgeny Loktyukhov, Head of the Department of Economic and Industry Analysis, PSB.The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
