Important events of the day
Russia: producer price index in September – 19:00 Moscow time.
Russia: weekly inflation – 19:00 Moscow time.
Eurozone: speech by the head of the ECB – 19:00 Moscow time.
Russia: annual inflation expectations of the population in October.
In the spotlight
On Tuesday, the global market showed multidirectional, but mostly upward dynamics. At the moment, a number of assets were supported by reports of significant progress in negotiations with Iran. However, they were later refuted, and the papers returned below. The Russian market continued to grow yesterday, although the temporary drawdown of oil weighed on a number of securities. Investors were waiting for geopolitical news, which was marked by plans to hold Russia-US talks in St. Petersburg in the evening. Locally, the day was marked by the publication of updated estimates of money supply growth for September, which showed a noticeable monthly slowdown.
Investors in the world today will continue to win back the upcoming reports and wait for news from the Middle East. Separately, the dynamics of the euro can be influenced by today's speech by the head of the ECB. On Wednesday, the Russian market will be waiting for news from the geopolitical meetings in St. Petersburg. However, it is also worth noting the publication of the latest macro data before the Central Bank meeting: weekly inflation, September producer prices and, especially, October figures on inflation expectations of the population.
Oil and the ruble
Yesterday, oil prices were falling sharply. The media reported that Pakistan's peace proposal for Iran had been approved by the United States. However, then representatives of Iran denied these reports, and black gold returned higher. Today, Brent futures are trading at $110.2/bbl. We see a high probability of a repeat of yesterday's situation – verbal interventions may again temporarily drive oil prices noticeably lower.
The ruble strengthened again on Tuesday. At the same time, the temporary drop in oil prices did not exert particularly noticeable pressure on the Russian currency yesterday. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.31 rubles/yuan. We do not exclude that, against the background of the tax period, the exchange rate may go below 12.30 rubles/yuan, but everything will depend on the course of today's negotiations in St. Petersburg.Victor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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