The external background on Friday morning can be called ambiguous. Sentiment abroad is mostly pessimistic, and Brent oil prices have risen to local peaks after falling the day before. Gold quotes dropped slightly below $4,000/oz.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with a 0.2-1.4% drop in the three major stock indexes, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. The indicators, however, retreated from intraday lows. Alphabet shares fell by 12.6% after posting worse-than-expected earnings results for the third quarter, as well as an increase in negative free cash flow due to high AI costs. Microsoft securities rose after the reports, but ended the session with a decline of 0.5%. At the same time, Thursday's macroeconomic data showed an acceleration in the growth of preliminary US GDP in the third quarter of this year from 2.2% to 3.4% q/q (+3.2% was forecast), with an increase in the base index of price consumption in September by 3.1% y/y against an increase of 3% a month earlier. Statistics continue to point in favor of a possible increase in the Fed's interest rates at the December meeting after a pause in October.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.8% in the morning. Shares of Amazon and Intel fell by 6.7% and 23.4%, respectively, after the publication of quarterly results outside the main trading. There are still doubts among investors about the justification of large-scale investments of companies in AI technologies.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with an increase in the index The Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.7%, which gained a foothold above the short-term resistance of 6170 points with the prospect of an upward movement to at least 6260 points (the upper Bollinger band of the daily chart). The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, as expected, but stressed the stability of inflation in the region. Perhaps the regulator, as well as the Fed, will go for another increase in interest rates this year in December. On Friday, preliminary estimates of German consumer prices in October will be published (possibly slowing growth), as well as the country's and the entire eurozone's GDP for the third quarter of this year.
A negative trend prevails at trading in Asia in the morning against the background of deteriorating sentiment in the United States. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 2%. On Friday, the Bank of Japan expectedly kept the interest rate at 1.25% after raising it last time. At the same time, macroeconomic data showed a slowdown in core consumer inflation in Tokyo in October from 2.7% to 2.6% yoy, while core inflation accelerated from 2.7% to 2.8% yoy. The Australian ASX 200 increased by 0.2%. Chinese indices are losing within 1.5%, maintaining local weakness. Hong Kong The Hang Seng is growing by 1.7%, correcting from this month's low of 22,803 points. The South Korean KOSPI fell 3.5%, reacting to the weakness of the American IT sector after the reports.
January Brent crude futures retreated from the session high in the morning, but are still rising by 1% after falling by less than 1% the day before. Quotes on Friday exceeded $114/bbl amid Western media reports about US preparations for a possible large-scale strike on Iran after the midterm elections on November 3. With the realization of geopolitical risks, prices may soon exceed the March peak of $119.50/bbl. The ardor of buyers weakened during the session amid reports of the arrival of negotiators from Qatar in Iran.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices accelerated their retreat from the week's peaks and important resistances of 2,540 points and 1,010 points, respectively, and fell by 1% and 0.8%. At the end of the week, the indicators approached the supports of 2,475 points and 965 points in anticipation of new fundamental signals.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange on the eve of the correction weakened by 1.5% to 12.21 rubles, during the session updating the next maximum since the beginning of August, 11.99 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 80.67 rubles and 89.81 rubles, respectively (against 80.86 rubles and 90.16 rubles on the previous working day), reflecting the growth of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is set to develop a restrained decline, remaining in the correction stage from the peaks reached earlier this month since June. Investors are waiting for geopolitical signals and, in particular, confirmation of important political meetings in November to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. By the end of October, the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices are ready to show an increase of 10% and 14%, respectively, and the ruble has strengthened its position both due to geopolitics and high oil prices. Next month, much will depend on the progress of the peace talks on Ukraine: Russian stock indicators have reached important medium-term levels, which are struggling for a further trend.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/article/indeksy_mosbirzhi_i_rts_zavershayut_oktyabr_rostom_no_otstupili_ot_srednesrochnykh_soprotivleniy/
The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
