The Moscow Exchange index on Tuesday fell by 0.4%, to 2,349 points, and trading volumes remained quite high by current standards - 89 billion rubles, which is higher than the average for 3 months. The optimism set by Friday was not enough: The Moscow Exchange index tried to reach above 2,400 at the session's high, but the maneuver failed, reflecting market participants' uncertainty about further growth without a clear improvement in the market environment.
The leaders on Tuesday were shares of RusHydro (+5%), reflecting expectations to return to regular dividend payments after the completion of a large-scale investment cycle. Metallurgists represented by NLMK (+3.9%), Severstal (+3.7%), MMK (+2.6%) showed good growth without obvious news reasons, rather as part of a corrective rebound. Mosenergo shares increased by 3%: shareholders at the AGM finally approved dividends in the amount of 0.2717 rubles. per share for 2025, a yield of 14%, the last day to receive is July 13.
Shares of AFK Sistema (-5.5%) turned out to be outsiders yesterday, which attracts a loan of 300 billion rubles, according to RBC, secured by Ozon shares, which calls into question the possibility of returning the System to dividend payments. Also under pressure were volatile VC (-3.3%, the company also turned out to be the outsider in June, losing 21%) and Aircraft (-2.7%), as well as shares of Tatneft (-2.45% oa; -1.3% pa), which is going through difficult times in the fuel market.
We still assess the current market situation as unstable and expect the Moscow Exchange index to remain in the 2,300-2,400 point zone today, with risks of a lower bound test. Today, the focus is on the publication of weekly inflation statistics (we are not expecting a positive outcome), and further large dividend cuts (double-digit returns) are expected: The nearest ones are CC X 5 (July 6, yield 11%), Mosbirzha (July 8, yield 12%), MTS (July 8, yield 16%).
Ekaterina Krylova, Managing Expert of the Economic and Industry Analysis Department of PSB Bank.
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