The GDP of the Russian Federation, according to forecasts of the Bank of Russia, will increase by 1-2% in 2025, by 0.5–1.5% in 2026, and by 1.5–2.5% in 2027. This is reported in the medium-term forecast of the Central Bank.
The growth of the Russian economy in 2024 was 4.1%, which is slightly higher than the Bank of Russia predicted in October. This is largely due to a stronger-than-expected growth in domestic demand, the Central Bank said in a statement following a meeting of the regulator's board of directors, which kept the key rate at 21%.
The high current inflationary pressure indicates that the Russian economy continues to deviate significantly from the balanced growth trajectory.
The regulator indicates that the labor market remains tough. Unemployment is still at historic lows. Wage growth continues to outpace labor productivity growth.
At the same time, according to surveys, companies' plans to hire workers and increase wages have become more restrained. The share of enterprises experiencing a shortage of personnel is decreasing.
In addition, there is a decrease in demand for labor in certain industries and its flow to other sectors. This creates the prerequisites for a gradual return of the economy to balanced growth.
