The external background on Thursday morning can be described as moderately negative. Sentiment abroad is mostly pessimistic, and Brent oil prices are declining after a subdued rise the day before. Gold quotes are trying to regain the positions lost on Wednesday, but remain slightly below $4,200/oz.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with a decrease in the three main indexes by 0.1-1.9%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to feel more confident after weeks of weakness, receiving support from healthcare sector stocks. On Wednesday, macroeconomic data showed a jump in core US consumer inflation in September from 2.4% to 2.6% YoY, with its stabilization at 0.3% mom, above forecasts. Core inflation accelerated from 3.4% to 3.7% YoY, increasing the likelihood of another interest rate hike at the Fed meeting in October. The statistics pushed the dollar index to another peak since April 2025 and put pressure on precious metals prices. Investors also sold shares of banks such as Bank of America (-4.7%) and Morgan Stanley (-2.8%) after the publication of quarterly results.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.3% in the morning. On Thursday, data on the US producer price index for September is expected to slow the growth of the base indicator from 4.6% to 4.4% yoy.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with an increase in the index Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.3%, which barely reacted to sales in the United States. The indicator remained below the short-term resistance of 6260 points, but regained its position, in particular, against the background of purchases in IT companies and ASML securities (+1.2%) after the issuer's strong sales forecasts for the fourth quarter. On the macroeconomic front, data released on Thursday morning showed an acceleration in UK GDP growth in August from 1.8% to 2.1% yoy, and the country's industrial production from 0.8% to 1.6% yoy.
A negative trend prevails at auctions in Asia in the morning after sales in the American IT sector and against the background of risks of increased international competition in the AI industry. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 4.8%. The Australian ASX 200 declined 0.1%. Chinese indices are losing 2.8%. Hong Kong The Hang Seng dropped 1.3%, remaining below the short-term resistance of 24,500 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart). South Korea's KOSPI fell 7.6%, reacting to strong sales in shares of chip manufacturers Samsung (-9.5%) and SK Hynix (-10.9%).
December Brent crude futures are losing about 1.5% in the morning after rising slightly less than 0.5% the day before, when quotes once again retreated from the resistance of $107.50/bbl. Pressure on prices is exerted by reports of a possible easing of US sanctions against the shadow fleet of Russia, Iran and Venezuela in order to reduce shipping tariffs. On Thursday, the IEA also plans to discuss the details of releasing G7 oil and diesel reserves, and the EU will host a meeting of the oil and fuel coordination group. At the same time, quotes remain well above $100/bbl amid the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East, difficulties with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz and new Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Before today's report by the US Department of Energy, the American Petroleum Institute also reported a reduction in the country's reserves of "black gold" by 11.1 million barrels last week, a positive signal for prices.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices did not stay near the highs of the day and the highest values since the second half of June (2,445 points) and since the beginning of July (918 points), falling by 0.53% and 0.63%, respectively. The indicators are still uncertain at the resistances of 2,465 points and 920 points, with the nearest supports at 2,410 points and 900 points.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange strengthened by 0.9% the day before, to 12.44 rubles. The official dollar and euro exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 83.94 rubles and 93.92 rubles, respectively (against 83.86 rubles and 93.77 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting a restrained decline in the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market did not show significant changes, while purchases were observed in shares of transport companies such as Sovcomflot and DVMP after reports of a possible easing of US sanctions against the shadow fleet. At the same time, oil prices, despite the continuing tense situation in the Middle East, are going down in the morning, and news from the meeting of the EU coordination group on oil and fuel, as well as details of the release of strategic reserves of the G7 countries, is expected during the day. World leaders are trying to limit the rise in energy prices, but the persistence of geopolitical tensions keeps Brent quotes above $ 100/bbl, which, all other things being equal, creates the basis for an early test of 2,500 points on the Moscow Exchange index.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/article/ssha_prodolzhayut_smyagchat_sanktsionnuyu_pozitsiyu_indeks_mosbirzhi_uderzhivaetsya_vyshe_2400_punkt/
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