Important events of the day
Eurozone: industrial production in August – 12:00 Moscow time.USA: producer price index in September – 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: retail sales in September – 15:30 Moscow time.
Russia: The current account in August is at 16:00 Moscow time.
USA: weekly change in oil reserves from EIA – 19:00 Moscow time.
In the spotlight
On Wednesday, global market sentiment deteriorated markedly. The reason was the September data from the United States, which showed a stronger-than-expected acceleration in core inflation (excluding volatile components). The Russian market continued to grow yesterday, albeit at a more modest pace. Investors have been playing off the geopolitical news, but so far it has not brought specifics. At the same time, a number of macro data were released in the evening, showing, among other things, a slowdown in weekly inflation to 0.11% n/a, a decrease in business price expectations in October, and seasonally adjusted inflation in September, according to the Bank of Russia, slowed from August 7.5% to 6.5% in annualized terms.
Investors in the world today will continue to win back the statistics coming out in the USA. September data on US producer prices will better reveal the nature of price pressure, and retail sales figures will shed light on the state of demand. In Russia, of Thursday's local events, it is worth noting only the publication of broader August balance of payments figures in addition to the commodity trade data released on Monday.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices rose yesterday, despite the noticeable strengthening of the dollar. However, at night, media reports about the discussion in the United States of the possibility of easing sanctions against the shadow fleet put pressure on quotes. Against this background, Brent futures are trading at $104.0/bbl today. In general, black gold may stay below $105/bbl for a while, especially if a new batch of statistics from the United States leads to an increase in the DXY dollar index again.
The ruble did not show significant dynamics for most of Wednesday, but by evening it had moved to strengthen. Support was provided by geopolitical statements and, probably, sales of individual exporters who are preparing in advance for large tax payments. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.49 rubles/yuan. Taking into account the latest news, the probability of going down from the range of 12.40-12.60 rubles/yuan is increasing.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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