Important events of the day
USA: industrial production in September – 16:15 Moscow time.
USA: the weekly number of oil drilling rigs is 20:00 Moscow time.
Russia: Central Bank's comments on regional inflation in September.
In the spotlight
The global market on Thursday showed multidirectional, but mostly upward dynamics. This was not prevented even by the September statistics from the United States, which showed an acceleration in producer price growth from 5.6% immediately to 6.3% yoy (forecast 5.3% yoy). Assets were mainly supported by the correction factor, and corporate news contributed to the flow of funds from technology companies to more traditional assets. The Russian market fell yesterday. Investors played back statistics from Wednesday evening, including estimates of seasonally adjusted inflation from the Central Bank, and later players were disappointed by the geopolitical statements of representatives of the Russian Federation and the resumption of attacks on infrastructure.
Today, global investors will evaluate the September data on industrial production in the United States. In addition, the market will continue to play out the events of the reporting season. In Russia, Friday will be marked locally only by the publication of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's September materials on inflation by region.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices did not change much yesterday at the end of the day. At the moment, they were noticeably declining, but then news of new strikes on ships and weekly figures from the United States, which showed a noticeably stronger than expected reduction in oil reserves, returned quotes higher. Today, Brent futures are trading at $105.2/bbl. So far, black gold continues to move around $105/bbl, but the geopolitical events of the weekend may once again add drivers to oil.
On Thursday, the ruble weakened, correcting after a sharp strengthening on Wednesday evening. At the same time, it is important to emphasize that last night the Russian currency tended to strengthen, moving away from intraday lows. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.52 rubles/yuan. For now, the ruble may continue to move near the middle of the range of 12.40-12.60 rubles/yuan, but in the "thin" evening market, the exchange rate may again go relatively lower today.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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