The external background on Friday morning can be described as moderately positive. Sentiment abroad has improved somewhat, and Brent oil prices continue to rise after jumping up the day before. Gold quotes tend to reach $4,000/oz amid global inflationary risks.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with a predominant fall of the three main indexes within 2.6%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq, which, however, along with other indicators retreated from the lows of the day. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to gain a symbolic advantage: the indicator is developing an upward movement after weakness in late summer and early autumn. The market once again succumbed to pessimism after the publication of quarterly results and forecasts Meta (-7%), as well as the announcement of the company's plans to issue new non-voting shares to finance AI costs. Tesla shares fell 3.1% after reporting, while IBM recovered intraday losses and rose 0.3%.
Futures for the S&P 500 index barely change positions in the morning, having stabilized after falling the day before and trying to maintain the medium-term uptrend line. The indicator has dropped below 7,700 points, but now it is trying to stay above the next support of 7,610 points, stabilization below which would open the way for it to reach the September low of 7,507 points.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended with a drop in the index the day before The Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 2%, which returned to the current month's low of 6,070 points amid a deterioration in global sentiment, another round of rising energy prices and worsening fears about France's debt difficulties. On Friday, preliminary estimates of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of European countries for October are expected to continue its expansion, although some cooling in a number of countries is possible. The data already published this morning showed a decrease in UK retail sales in September by 0.4% mom, while they grew by 0.8% yoy – worse than forecasts.
There has been no consistent trend in trading in Asia since this morning: many indicators have retreated from intraday lows as part of the correction. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.2%. Statistics on Friday showed an acceleration in Japan's core consumer inflation in September from 1.7% to 2.1% yoy, a negative signal ahead of next week's central bank meeting. The Australian ASX 200 has hardly changed positions. Chinese indices are adding within 2.7%, regaining the positions lost in previous sessions. Hong Kong The Hang Seng is rising 1.1% after falling during the day to its lowest level since the end of June. South Korea's KOSPI is up 0.3%, breaking out of the intraday downside. Most Asian markets end the week with losses in the range of 4.5%.
December Brent crude futures are adding about 1% in the morning after jumping up by 4% the day before. Quotes have continued to update peaks since May and have come close to the maximum of the specified month of $115.30/bbl. Stabilization above this level will confirm the risks of moving towards the current year's peak of $119.50/bbl reached in March after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Investors continue to buy futures amid continued tensions in the Middle East and risks of escalation, in particular, new attacks on oil facilities in Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices did not show a single trend the day before: the ruble indicator lost 0.65%, and the dollar indicator increased by 0.4%, updating another peak since the beginning of July due to the support of the currency factor. The nearest resistances for the indices are located at 2,475 points and 955 points, respectively, while the supports are at 2,415 points and 940 points.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange strengthened by 0.4% to 12.23 rubles the day before, reaching a maximum of 12.11 rubles since the beginning of August.. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 81.12 rubles and 91.13 rubles, respectively (against 81.97 rubles and 91.93 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting the growth of the ruble against both currencies. The ruble continues to receive support from higher oil prices and the prospect of continuing negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is set to develop restrained growth and will continue to receive support from geopolitical signals, including confirmation of Russia's readiness to hold trilateral talks on Ukraine with the United States, as well as a meeting with the leaders of the United States and China in November. In the event of a further softening of the American position and progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, investors are waiting for an easing of sanctions pressure, which Europe may sooner or later join. At Friday's meeting, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is likely to leave the key rate at 14%, while reducing it by 25 basis points could be positive for stocks and moderately negative for the ruble.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
