The Bank of Russia has maintained its forecast of 0.5-1.5% GDP growth in 2026. This is reported in the Central Bank's medium-term forecast, published after the regulator's board of directors lowered the key rate to 15.5%.
According to the results of last year, economic growth in 2025 amounted to 1%, which is the upper limit of the Central Bank's forecast. In general, its dynamics are in line with the expectations of the regulator: economic activity has moved to a more moderate growth rate, according to a statement by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, following a meeting of the board of directors.
At the end of the year, there was an increase in consumer demand. As for investments, companies have increased investments at a record pace over the past three years, and this has translated into the launch of new projects that are now entering the phase of commercial operation. They will support the growth of the economy's potential, despite the fact that the dynamics of investment is becoming more restrained, the statement emphasizes.
Unemployment remains at minimal levels. At the same time, the share of companies that cite staff shortages as their main limitation has noticeably decreased and is now at lows over the past two years.
In addition, companies' salary indexation plans are more modest now than last year. All this indicates a reduction in pressure on companies' costs from the labor market.
